Sunday, April 26, 2009

What The Polls Mean

...according to B.C. political scientist Kennedy Stewart.

Of course, it is difficult to mathematically model the effects of human stupidity.

8 comments:

Nosferatu200 said...

BCL, as much as I like you I continue to be confused by your apparent support for the BC Liberals. Aside from the name, they are far closer to Ralph Klein-style conservatism than they are the Liberal Party of Canada or most of the provincial parties. What's the rationale?

WesternGrit said...

The BC Liberals are not any more "right" than the Sask or AB Liberals (having lived there, I know this to be true). They are simply in a province that is a little more left-center than the other two. There is also the addition of Progressive Cons from the Socreds. There is still a BC Conservative Party for the real right wing nutjobs. Don't compare us with AB Cons - please. I lived there and know that brand of lunacy. This is far from that.

Ti-Guy said...

BCL, as much as I like you I continue to be confused by your apparent support for the BC Liberals.I think BCL just loves elections.

bigcitylib said...

Tiguy,

I do love elections.

Noone,

I am origonally from B.C., but its its been a long time since I've lived there so I can't really claim deep familiarity anymore. My understanding of Campbell is that he started off as Mike Harris Lite, that crapped out on him, and he's been easing Left towards the Center ever since.

I don't really follow the details, but my understanding is that Campbell has been fairly brave on aborigonal issues, and of course has managed to pass a Carbon tax.

I am also royally pissed off at the NDP (who, when I was in B.C., I used to vote for regularly) these days for their environmental policy, which I think is extremely irresponsible.

KC said...

BCL - Re: your comment. I agree. I didnt like Campbell at first. I moved to BC for school during Campbell's first years of office and saw my tuition rise by 100% over about a year and witnessed the farce of his mail-in referendum on relations with aboriginals.

But since then he has became a fairly decent leader for the same reasons you mention--his carbon tax, and his initiatives with respect to aboriginals.

He hasnt really exhibited the same neo-liberal tendencies in his second term that he showed early on.

Nosferatu200 said...

Fair enough. Maybe I haven't been following British Columbia politics as much as I should be and have unfairly judged Campbell. I'll give him this at least; when he drinks, at least he doesn't berate homeless men in shelters. lol

Red Tory said...

Contrary to popular misconception, the only truly “left-wing” government we’ve had here in B.C. was the NDP under Dave Barrett for three brief years back in the mid-70s. Today’s “Liberals” are yesterday’s Socreds re-branded, and while someone here described them as “progressive” that’s laughable to say the least. If by that you mean government investing massively in infrastructure and not being averse to “nationalizing” (or whatever the provincial equivalent of that is) utilities, then the Socreds of the 50-70s were indeed “progressive” *cough* but otherwise, they were entirely regressive, Bible-thumping maroons for the most part.

It will be recalled that the Socred regime collapsed in a welter of scandals too numerous to describe under the auspices of Wacky Bennett II and finally did a face plant under the zany, far-right lunacy of Bill Vander Zalm before being replaced by the stumblefuck gang that couldn’t shoot straight that mismanaged this province under the banner of the NDP during the 90s that also collapsed under the weight of scandals (first “Bingo-gate” then “Fast Ferries” followed by Glen Clark’s home renovation extravaganza).

The fortunes of the current “Liberal” party owe a lot to another Gordon… last name Wilson. He revived what had been a moribund husk since Gordon Gibson (not to be confused with Gordon Gibson Sr. who was a prominent leader in the party many years earlier) stepped down after holding the sole Liberal seat in the province for many years. There’s something about everyone leading that party being named Gordon, apparently. Anyway, Gordon Wilson was truly a “progressive” (he’d formerly been in the NDP) and a very dynamic reformer and charismatic populist to boot, but alas, he ended up have to resign because of a stupid sex scandal. So today we have Gordon Campbell.

Make no mistake — he’s an arrogant, autocratic neo-liberal, notwithstanding some of his greenish policies (which some have described as nothing more than a tax grab) and outreach to native communities. Check the electoral maps and you’ll find a pretty good symmetry between federal Conservative ridings and BC Liberal seats. And talk to any civil servant and they’ll tell you that this is a “conservative” government, not a liberal one.

Politics here defies easy right/left definitions and there’s a reason why our parties have never quite reflected their federal counterparts.

crf said...

It's Carol James and her stupid carbon tax policy. That's what the polls mean. Ordinarily, the NDP have not in the past taken policy positions for stupid reasons. But they are now opposing the carbon tax for stupid reasons, using the same bankrupt talking points as the conservatives did the last election. She's bleeding huge numbers of voters, due to this one policy position. In so many other areas, Campbell has been horrible. But climate change policy is not something to glibly mess around with: I feel there is no issue more important.

After saying all that, I am voting NDP anyway. The candidate, Lana Popham, is her own woman, not Carol James. And the Liberal candidate, Adair, was a spokesman for a job-placement company that was under contract to the province (that has seen some controversy).

If the Liberals had fronted a stronger candidate, I would have voted for them. But Adair doesn't have a good education and has a thin resume. And since his paycheck for the last few years has been dependent on the Liberals being happy with the work his company has done, he hasn't any incentive to be his own man once in the legislature. Popham is better educated, with a BA, and she has had some successes in her life, as a business owner.

I'm really upset that the Liberals have fronted such a poor candidate. Saanich, more than many other ridings, has a large pool of highly educated, highly qualified individuals who would make good MLAs.