Saskatoon Tory Brad Trost has a shaky command of facts. Nevertheless, his assessment of the prospects of Bill C-301, which would amend the Criminal Code and the Firearms Act so as to eliminate the long gun registry, is troubling:
Getting Breitkreuz`s Private Members’ Bill passed into law will not be an easy fight. Repealing the gun registry will require 154 votes and the Conservatives have only 143 members. We need the votes of at least 11 Opposition MPs. Preliminary vote counts indicate that we have more than the 11 votes necessary. However, even if we get 154 votes in favour of Breitkreuz’s bill, there will be a fierce fight in committee and later in the Senate to have the legislation made into law.
So, can the Tories pass C-301? Well, Trost aside, the prospects don't look good.
For one thing, its a Private Member's Bill, which tend to go nowhere. The boys at WS think its just another one of those laws that the Tories have dangled over the base under the assumption that they will never become law:
The probability that a private member’s bill without official government support, which is what C-301 is, will be adopted by the House of Commons is small. If the House does not get to vote on the bill in third reading, no damage is done to the power of the state and the support of some gun owners will have been bought at a cheap political price.
They also don't think the votes are there in the 1st place:
If there is a vote, it is unlikely that the bill will gather a majority; Harper can then claim that he has no choice but to embrace the Liberals’ law.
Other bill supporters are equally sceptical.