- Dion leads as the second choice of delegates, with 21%. He is the man "everyone is prepared to consider" as Lib Leader. Iggy gets 8%, so he considered is the candidate most likely to stall out after the first ballot.
- Dion might have troubles with delegate attendance, with about 13% of his people saying they won't be in Montreal.
- 23% of delegates say anyone but Iggy should be Lib Leader. This is somewhat smaller number than I imagined, but can be explained if you hypothesize that many Liberals are thought vacuums who feel that whatever piece of slop they lay down before the Canadian people, the Canadian people will vote for. But wake up, Liberal Sheeples! Wake up! The Liberal "establishment", who have given you Iggy, also gave you Turner and and Martin. Canadians rejected your back-room elites a long time ago. Its time the rank and file got with the program.
- And, oh yes, the real shocker! A majority of Liberal delegates (but no numbers given in The Star piece):
... not only oppose adopting the "nation" resolution at the convention, they reject the term conceptually
I guess someone is going to leave humiliated.
EKOS' earlier polls on the Lib Leadership race have been a bit iffy, overestimating Bob Rae's support and underestimating Ignatieff's. Although you could argue that the Byzantine method by which Libs select delegates gives an ill reflection of the wishes of the rank and file membership. In any case, this poll was weighted to reflect the results of "Super Weekend". It did not include ex officio delegates.
7 comments:
meanwhile, back in the real world, where Liberal navel gazing, self absorbtion and talk-the-talk of the B team leadership candidates is being ignored by all the ordinary folks . . . PMSH holds the fort and manages the timing and money keys to the next election.
--The Ottawa Citizen’s Norma Greenaway reports:
Public support for the Harper government is as steady as it was on election day nine months ago, despite the political storm this week over its flip-flop on taxing income trusts, a new poll has found.
Indeed, the national survey by Ipsos Reid conducted for CanWest News Service paints a picture of an electorate that is virtually unmoved since voters gave Stephen Harper's Conservatives a minority at the polls last January.
If an election were held today, the Conservatives would garner 37 per cent of the vote, up one percentage point from the election. The Liberals would score 29 per cent, down one percentage point, and the New Democratic Party would get 19 per cent, up two percentage points.
The Bloc Quebecois would get nine per cent, down two percentage points, and the Green party five per cent, the same percentage as on voting day.
In Quebec, the Bloc stood at 38 per cent, down five points from the last poll in August, whereas Tory support was almost unchanged at 21 per cent, and the Liberals were down three percentage points to 19 per cent.
"It (the survey) shows there is a lot of sound and fury out there about a number of issues," said pollster Darrell Bricker. "But it doesn't really seem to have percolated down into affecting partisan choice."
A guy who has hung on to his minority gov't for 8 mnths based on the oppositions distaste for calling an election while leaderless should hardly be said to hold the "timing" key. As for money, well, I guess it doesn't surprise me you think that elections are to be bought and not won.
G
"The Liberal "establishment", who have given you Iggy, also gave you Turner and and Martin."
Ha! That's a laugher. You mean the same "establishment" that gave us Chretien and is trying to force feed us Rae?
Chretien saved the nation, Ted.
Riiiiiiiiiiight.
BCL, what I like about you, even in your Ignatieff-is-worse-for-Canada-than-Hitler diatribes, is you don't seem to drink from anyone's kool-aid.
Don't start now.
JC tamed the deficit, won the referendum, smited the Crappers, and would have given the Libs another solid majority, Adscam notwithstanding. And whose cool-aid is that? Nobody loves Chretien anymore. The Libs have made him a pariah standing in for everything thats gone wrong for them since they knifed him in the back.
Hey, I don't have a problem with Chretien. I just like to see things a little more objectively about the history of our own party, that's all.
The Martinites did bad but no worse than Chretienites. There was no way Chretien would have won another majority, not a chance. The Libs didn't make him a pariah, he is still revered, it was the rest of Canada, the majority that didn't support the Liberals.
Martin took a bad situation, a deep hole... and started digging. Had he shown party loyalty - the kind the Chretienites mock whenever they are out of power themselves - we could have sat out for a short term in minority opposition in 2004, helped Harper self-destruct and walk back into power.
I don't blame in the least the Chretienites for not supporting the "Martin Party", but don't let's start re-writing history.
Anyway, the point of the start of this discussion was your disparagement of the establishment. Chretien was far more establishment than Martin was or Ignatieff is. Rae is far more establishment. Ignatieff? Not so much at all. Just look at the people running his campaign. Just look at the grassroots support among his donors.
I mean, to spin it another way, if you look at all the things you've criticized in his campaign, do you think the "establishment" would have chosen a candidate like that? or put a bunch of young rookies in charge of the campaign? Dion and Rae have seasoned veterans in charge of their respect day to day operations, a hardcore Martinite and a hardcore Chretienite respectively. Iggy's got Davey and no one in the office is over 45.
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