Tories Retreat on Tory Retreat On Clean Air Act

Now Baird is saying the Tories haven't decided whether or not to kill the Clean Air Act. And is it just me or is he starting to look a little bit puffy around the cheeks, like he's been getting into Harper's donut box? Pity. From The Hulk to The Blob in three short months.

Conservatives In Retreatl

They're too scared of the fallout to engineer their own defeat over it, and they're too beholden to special interest groups to pass it. As predicted, Stephen Harper's Conservatives will abandon the Clean Air Act and sssslither away into the night. And, oh yeah, even though all the opposition parties helped rewrite it, John Baird has now officially dubbed it a "Liberal" bill. Stephane Dion should buy him lunch for that.

Will The Tories Ditch Clean Air Act?

Not fall over it, not pass it, but let it die on the order paper? This is starting to look increasingly likely:

The Conservative government may abandon what is left of a Clean Air Act largely redrafted by opposition parties as it shifts focus to setting industrial pollution limits and financial penalties.

And John Baird hinted the same thing on CBC radio this morning.

Note to those who thought Harper and the Tories had "neutralized" the environment as an issue. Look where the opposition is falling back: here, for example, the NDP is caving and teaming up with the Tories to pass gun crimes legislation. They don't want the next election to be about "law and order issues". Now look where the government is in retreat: specifically, they're trying to sneak away from their own environmental legislation. They don't...repeat DO NOT...want to fight an election over Kyoto.

Therefore, let me repeat, no election this Spring.

Stephen Harper Readies His Carbon Tax

Apparently, Harper will be revealing his national emissions targets on Thursday, March 29th. From Claudia Cattaneoin in today's Fin. Post:

Word in the oilpatch is that Ottawa's plan will be tougher than Alberta's, but not as stringent as the Kyoto Protocol on climate change.

Translation: Canada's oil-and-gas sector will have to pay up to meet Alberta's new regulations, and pay up even more to meet Ottawa's.

(Under Alberta's greenhouse gas regulations, announced this month, the 100 facilities that account for about 70% of the province's total emissions are required to cut emissions intensity by 12%, starting July 1, or about six months earlier than expected. Large emitters have the option of making operating improvements, buying an Alberta-based offset or contributing to a new fund that will invest in technology to reduce emissions.)

While Ottawa's plan is not expected to kick in until 2010, the two sets of regulations are likely to stack up on top of each other.

Ignore the woe-is-the-oilpatch tone and contemplate the political implications. Though the Harper plan will fall short dreadfully, it will be the same in kind as Dion's initiative. That is, it will be very difficult to tar the Liberal plan as being radical. Everybody is offering up some kind of a carbon tax, or at least something that can be interpreted as a carbon tax! The difference will be merely in the stringency of the various regulatory regimes, and the Liberal message should therefore be: Harper's plan is SOFT on Polluters, whereas Dion gets TOUGH with those who would use out skies as a garbage dump.

That's an easy battle to fight.

Will These Liberals Support Budget?

Joe Comuzzi (Thunder Bay-Superior North) and Keith Martin ( Esquimalt- Juan De Fuca) are making noises in that direction:

The veteran MP said if the budget proves fruitful for Thunder Bay’s new Molecular Medicine Research Centre, he may have no choice but to go against the wishes of Liberal Leader Stephane Dion and support it.“

That (MMRC) money is maybe the most important part of the budget for Thunder Bay,” Comuzzi said.

“That money’s not gonna come through if they’re toppled.”

Since the budget is already going to pass, Dion should probably let these two vote their preference (although I don't know what Martin's issue is). The place to stand and fight will be the Clean Air Act. Since John Baird has now promised that Canada will "honour" our Kyoto commitments, it will be quite difficult, I think, for the Tories to make this a confidence matter so as to kill opposition amendments that in fact bind us to those commitments.

h/t to One Dominion.

Update: Comuzzi is gonzo from the Liberal caucus. That took guts on Dion's part.

Update: Keith Martin is NOT supporting the Harper budget. Thanks Red Tory. And I am beginning to change my mind a little as to the Lib response to Comuzzi. It seems to me that a few metaphoric heads up on metaphoric poles might go aways to dispelling the notion of Dion as wimp.