There's A New Denier In Town, Or: Who The Heck is Oliver "Iron Sun" Manuel?

Oliver Manuel is a dissident nuclear chemist best known for his "Iron Sun" Theory. Lately, Mr Oliver has been dipping his toes into the Climate Change skeptic community, and a paper in Energy and Environment may be in the works. By way of "prefutation", here is a bit of background on the man and his work.

The inspiration for O. Manuel's novel ideas came during the 1960s, when he noticed that the abundances of certain elements in meteorites were distinctly different from those in the Earth and much of the solar system. From this humble beginning, Mr. Manuel developed his theory that our solar system was created during the explosion of a super-nova five billion years ago, and that our sun is the collapsed, mostly iron remnant of that super-nova (see figure above).

Although many scientists acknowledge the fruitfulness of Manuel's original observations, and although he is still a member in good standing (as it were) of the relevant scientific community, by his own admission "Ninety-nine percent of the field will tell you [The Iron Sun theory is] junk science."

Recently (this year, I believe), Mr. Manuel has began hanging out at Denialist websites like Climate Audit, and expressing skepticism in regards to AGW. For example:

I suspect that NASA has used some of the same tricks to peddle AGW (anthropologic global warming) that it used to promote the myth that planet Earth is heated by a steady, H-fusion reactor in the core of a Hydrogen-filled Sun.

He has also been promulgating the idea that, somehow, his ideas explain the current climate phenomenon. So what connection does The Iron Sun Theory have with a warming Earth?

Well, not very much, it would appear. While Mr. Manuel argues here and, in greater detail, here, that the Iron Sun theory explains the mechanisms behind the solar eruptions, magnetic fields, sun spots, and so forth, that can have an effect on Earth's climate, there is no attempt to explain the specific temperature trends observed over the past century or so. No attempt, for example, to explain why temperatures have continued to rise while solar activity has fallen.

If I were to guess, I would say that Mr. Manuel is looking to raise the profile of his pet theory by tying it to dissenting positions in other fields. Denialists tend to be far more supportive of one another's ideas than is the case in the scientific community as a whole. Its a bit like North Korea forming alliances with Iran; the outcasts tend to stick together.

Here Comes The Sun (Again)

Rumblings from the Deniers' Cafe suggest that theskeptic community will attempt to use this recent discovery to resurrect the whole Sun-as-driver-behind-Global-Warming meme:

Scientists from the Ulysses mission have proven that sounds generated deep inside the Sun cause the Earth to shake and vibrate in sympathy. They have found that Earth's magnetic field, atmosphere and terrestrial systems, all take part in this cosmic sing-along.

They haven't figured out how, yet, but I imagine some charts and graphs, and maybe a paper in E&E, are to come.

The Sun Sets On That Little Theory

One of the arguments packed around by your typical Climate Change Denier, which they whip out at appropriate moments, is to admit the obvious--that the last century has seen significant warming--but to blame this warming on the "Solar Cycles"--increases in sunspots, solar irradiance, whatever. However, the folks at Deltoid were, as far as I know, the first to point to this bit of recent research that debunks the Sun/GW connection. And Eli the Techno Bunny is the first to point out that it looks like the scientists behind the best-known solar based theories have thrown in the towel:

On other timescales however, Sun-climate links may remain worthy of study. "Climate change is a cocktail of many effects," says Jasper Kirkby, a physicist at CERN, the European particle physics laboratory near Geneva Switzerland, who is leading an experiment aimed a simulating the effect of cosmic rays on clouds. "Past climate changes have clearly been associated with solar activity. Even if this is not the case now, it is still important to understand how solar variability affects climate"

One of the most obvious problems behind any theory of this kind is that, if GW is caused by solar cycles, the effect should be seen throughout the length and breadth of the solar system. But, as I tell all my Denier friends, its getting colder on Ur Anus (a line I will keep using until someone admits to me that its hilarious).

PS. You can see the actual paper, rather than a popular summary, here.