On Those Pipeline Decisions

Here is one of what will be many stories.

So, start with some facts and probabilities.

Northern Gateway is dead.  That's a piece of good news.  Line 3 nobody heard of until today, so who knows?   Also, who knows about Keystone.  That decision is not really in Canadian hands.

Energy East looks less likely to me.  The Trudeau gov. will take a big political hit for this in B.C. They won't risk the equivalent in Que. where they have more seats in the HOC.   Also, "the market" never cared much for Energy East; there's more money to be made if oil flows West to China than East to who knows where?

Now there's a pretty solid case to be made for the govs' position.  Put simply; Alberta deserves a pipe-line. I'm lazy right now so  I'll just quote stuff I wrote earlier on this, ironically enough about Energy East:

You have to think of this as the first step in a process.  Carbon is priced in Phase 1, and then in phases 2, 3, 4, and so on, that price is gradually ratcheted up.  Alberta has been told that, if it cleans up its act and gets with Phase 1, it will be given a chance to send its oil to the larger world market, where it might fetch a better price.  And so, at some political cost to the ruling government and economic cost to the province itself, it has attempted to do right.

So how do you then get a buy-in on phase 2, 3 and etc. if this good behaviour is not rewarded somehow?  If  no action the province takes will be rewarded why bother doing anything in future? So do we achieve our ultimate goal (hitting our announced carbon reduction targets) more quickly through cooperating or trying to steam-roll a whole industry out of business?

There's a matter of intellectual consistency at issue here.  If you are arguing that taking appropriate measures to obtain "social license" will get the province a pipeline or two, but really mean no way no how, than you are being  dishonest.   Why would a future Kenney government keep a Notley carbon tax if they could plausibly argue that it had brought them no credit?

That said,  BCers are going to go ape-shit.  When most people think of "Western Alienation" they think of whining Albertans.  But we BC natives range from artists to tech capitalists to first nation's warriors who can move unseen like a shadow in the night to hippies who've learned how to levitate by taking magic mushrooms to fishermen to whatever Van Der Zalm was.  And ranged against them is a bunch of ill-favoured, uncouth tar miners from Lethbridge.  If this becomes a political war, anti-pipeline forces will win in BC (opinion always tilts anti-pipeline when things heat up) and BC will win in the nation as a whole, and if Feds and Alberta try to NEP B.C., B.C. will tear this country a new one, sleep with its women, and leave for someplace better.  Yes, this could escalate into a National Unity issue.

And there's also the issue of the planet itself.  With respect to CO2 emissions, killing or even stalling pipelines is a bit like staunching the bleeding a little.  So I personally believe none of these pipelines go through.  But I'm willing to have the battles won at a more local level, and cut the feds some slack.

Small Mercies? Is Trump Softening Stance On Climate Change/Paris Agreement?

There are signs.  Climate change denier Myron Ebell may not get top spot at the EPA:

Myron Ebell, a prominent climate change skeptic who runs the Competitive Enterprise Institute libertarian think tank, has been leading Trump's EPA transition team, but sources said he is not likely to become the administrator.

Furthermore, the bottom couple of paragraphs from a recent article in  Utility Dive, quoting a "Trump Insider", suggest that Trump may have advanced a bit beyond crude climate change denial.  He won't lead an attack on renewables, and further:

There will be “enormous casualties among climate change activities,” the Trump insider said. But, he added, “Trump doesn’t want to turn his back on climate change.”

...which sounds bad, but better than claiming its all a Chinese hoax.  Interestingly enough, the first version of  piece is quite a bit more hard-line:

Trump's back-tracked on  a few issues over the past couple of days.  Maybe this is what we are seeing  here.   On this one it makes sense for him to retreat towards something like the G.W. Bush position.  That is, accept the underlying science and remain onside with the Paris Climate Agreement in theory  (I am hearing stories that his opposition to that may not be set in stone), but in practice do nothing.    Why choose active belligerence when inaction is enough?  Which is bad news, but not as bad as if he were to actively attempt to kneecap the renewables sector.

Life In Scarborough: Wisdom From Out In Scarborough

Was sitting in my favorite working man's pub out in Scarborough today, and heard something which I thought was quite deep.  One of the fellows at the bar said: "If you can't laid in Cuba, you can't get laid anywhere."  Which is a fact that many other people have told me is so.

Perhaps today more than ever we should acknowledge the inherent wisdom of the white working class.

Before You Cancel That Telus Contract!

because the company favors a price on carbon, read Rebel Media's (that's Ezra Levant's latest venture, if you haven't been paying attention) fight back letter!

Note the fifth and seventh paragraph.  While Holly the Rebel wants you to dump Telus now, she herself only plans to cancel someday, maybe, if the cards fall right.  That's about the lamest form of rebellion I've ever seen.  

PS.  They address me as Heywood J. because I am in the Rebel database as Heywood J. Blome.  Its an old joke.  I get a ton of email from these folks.

Bill Whatcott's Back

Last I heard, he had moved to the Phillipines because they hate the gays more.  But he's back in Toronto, his old stomping grounds, at least temporarily:

The class action lawsuit is a interesting idea.  You don't debate guys like Whatcott.  You figure out ways to take away their money.

If his name is unfamiliar, start here.

H/T@journo_dale.

Important News From Turkey!

I just googled it and turkeys don't actually come from Turkey. So no matter what happens, the 1st World should be OK for thanksgiving.

— Bigcitylib (@Bigcitylib2) July 15, 2016

Tim Tebow Says He Ain't Speaking At RNC National Convention

There is a list, and he's on it.  But then there's his Facebook message saying its all a rumor.  But that's a semi-official looking list.  Did the Trump gang stick Tebow on it without telling?  And if Tebow shouldn't have been there, how many other entries are false?

A Brief Note On Dope Regs: Make 'em Now Or Make 'em Never

 As you may know, I spent the last week and change  out on the Left Coast.  Probably the most interesting part was hanging with friends last Saturday at a beach BBQ, discussing the state of medical marijuana.  Half the table owned "green cards" or "compassion club" membership cards, and more than half of those were retired.  Trying to sound knowledgeable, I told them I knew a gal back in Ontario with chronic pain, who got a couple of vials of oil per month from the program.  And she'd told me the price of street weed, which she'd used previously to alleviate pain, had plunged during the last year. They cackled at my simplicity and one little old lady said: "We know that, sonny."

So there you have it.  The elderlies have gone rogue.  So if the Trudeau government plans to get ahead of the issue, they should act soon.  Otherwise Canada will turn into B.C.  Questionably legal pot shops on every corner.  Downtown T.O. smelling sickly sweet with the herb, just like Vancouver.

Not that there's necessarily anything wrong with that, other than its pretty clear organized crime has a toe in the business. There's an incentive: open a dispensary and you have a legal reason to be driving around with 30 kilos of weed in your trunk.  And some dispensary owners have responded to $250-a-day municipal fines for being open illegally...by paying $250 a day.  This is suspicious behavior, in my opinion, and not something you would expect from a young hippy couple with shop-keeping ambitions.

And not that there's necessarily anything wrong with that either.  I'm sure there are many west coast bikers who, as they get older, would like to transition into selling a legal product.  Even tough guys dream of an easier life.  But if the federal government wants to shape the market rather than take what is there now,  they should move with more haste than they're currently displaying.   Some leeway seems to have already disappeared.  A too restrictive regime at this point will not supplant the status quo; it will be undermined by it.  Unless Justin Trudeau wants to start busting Vietnam vets, and maybe even his own mother.

What I'm Up To

Wife and I are out on the West Coast for a wedding and some vacationing, which for us has come to be associated with visiting the many, many wineries on Vancouver Island.  This

...is a shot from outside of one of our favorites, de Vine Vineyards on top of Devine Hill.  And this 

...is just a random bunch of wildflowers outside of Sydney By The Sea, an old retirement town that's repurposed itself as a tourist trap.  Note how healthy these flowers look.  The same flowers in T.O. would be gagging on car exhaust and industrial pollutants.

Your Ward News: A Letter The G&M Didn't Print

They got an even shorter version, but so stubbornly persist in their wrongness and hatred of elegant prose that they wouldn't even print that one.  Anyway, I didn't want all my work to go for nothing, so here it is:

Marcus Gee's Free Speech Views Are Painfully Naive

Gee suggests that Toronto citizens respond to Yourward News by  debunking its chief author, James Sears.  But Sears brags about the many women he has "pinned down against their will", and talks up Hitler and Jesus in the same breath.  That rape is bad, and Hitler not like Jesus; these seem self-evident truths and I would personally shun anyone who felt they were at issue.  An attempt to convince them towards sanity would likely prove futile.  It might also result in online death-threats from Neo-Nazis and members of the "seduction community", as some have already discovered.

And I'm not sure  Mr. Gee has read what he is defending.  He supports prohibiting material which incites violence, but  apparently missed  Sears' pro-rape musings and his talk of "eradicating FemiMarxists".  I don't begrudge Mr. Gee his ignorance, but he might show some empathy for the posties who must deliver this vile product, or the locals who receive it on their doorstep.  They can't avoid it so easily.

Marcus Gee's painfully naive piece can be found here.

Cheri Di Novo Is Fucking Nuts

That is all.

Other than maybe this, for now.  THERE IS MORE!

Life In Scarborough: Anti-Union Sentiments Overheard Being Expressed In Scarborough Pub!

I hear a guy at the bar today, talking.  He says:  "Hey, you know what a union is, don't ya?  It's a bunch of drunk guys fallin' off a roof."

The guy's in construction.  He's management.

The Odds Of Me Voting NDP Just Went Down

I admit they they weren't high to begin with.  But IMHO Nathan Cullen was one of their most charismatic, sharpest MPs, and if he ever grew some hair on that bald head I think he could have led the NDP, if not to power, than at least to one or two levels above the level of haplessness which they now occupy.  And I'm a bit surprised at his decision.  Maybe Nate figures its not worth running for Leader o'  the Losers.  I hear the offices they stick the 3rd party in have roach and rat infestations, depending on the season, and the cafeteria serves moldy bread, and all the taps drip.  

But if Nathan Cullen ever wants to floor cross, he should just slip me an email.  I know a couple of LPC heavyweights, and I donated $5 to the party one time.  I might be able to pull a few strings and get him a ministry.  Something small.  "Minister of String, Cans, And Jars"; something like that.  The rest is up to him.  Work hard and he could get ahead.

Mann Vs. Steyn: Who Is The Dead Denier?

Mark Steyn is complaining that the defamation case launched against him by climate scientist Mike Mann has taken forever.  Well, on the face of it, the first response must be that he should suck it up. In Canada, at least, waiting four years for a defamation case to unfold is pretty standard;  I doubt the U.S. court system is significantly less clogged.  And of course much of the delay is a result Mark's various stalling tactics after the initial judgements went against him, tactics which included the promotion of arguments so novel as to be, as they say, "unknown to law".

Also, there's this from his request for an expedited hearing:

Many of Steyn's expert witnesses are emeritus professors and comparatively advanced in years, being of an age and eminence that enables them to stand against the bullying and intimidation that prevails in climate science. Therefore, the passage of time is not an unimportant thing. Indeed, one of Steyn's proposed witnesses has, in fact, died while this interlocutory appeal has been with the appellate court. 

I've been trying to figure out who the old dead scientist might be.  Maybe Bob Carter or Bill Gray. If anyone knows for sure, please say in the comments. In any case, Steyn only confirms what John Mashey showed several years back, which is that deniers with scientific credentials tend to skew towards the elderly end of the demographic scale.

Finally, you don't have to read Mark's brief if you don't want to, but it sounds as though he wrote it himself, or took a draft from his lawyer and spiced it up with Steyn-style rhetorical flourishes.  Its best to look at it as a fund-raising tool more than a legal document.  And its worth noting that judges typically don't approve when you use the legal system to win in the court of public opinion. Sometimes they make this fact known in their judgements against you.

On Being An Asshole in Politics, Part 1.1037

This was indeed somewhat assholish.  Not very, because Bob Rae couldn't have known (though he should have suspected) that the cameras would have been on him.  And I get the sentiment.  If it had been me up there I would have talked about how Evil had fled the land after the ring had been cast into the fires of Mt. Doom, and so forth.  But the PM has to lay on the cheese and pretend to love everyone, even Albertans.

On a related note, apparently Justin Trudeau has redefined masculinity.  He can punch out Big Indians, and yet he cries at gawdawful chick flicks. Whatever.  New definition; old definition.  I rate about 5.3 out of 10 either way.  So this news does not directly effect me.

The Sad Sad State of the Conservative Menace: On Derek Fildebrandt & Being An Asshole In Politics

I met Derek a couple of times on one of Michael Coren's old shows.  You talk before, afterwards, and during the breaks on these things.  He seemed a decent enough chap, chatting away about how the CTF PR-team handled its  responses to various issues as they arose.  And when you listened to him speak  on the show, he seemed coherent:  broadly conservative, but not without a wee tad o' nuance and empathy.  So what the fuck happened?  Politics, man, it was politics.  He thinks he needs to throw out boob-bait to the bubbas back in his riding.  But he is acting in a manner that is untrue to himself.  I mean, look at the guy's hair.  He's a city-boy; metro-sexual all the way down, if not gayer.   Yet trying to act like a prairie wild-man.  It's just sad.

Meanwhile, after Justin Trudeau's poll ratings soared when he accidentally punched an NDP MP in the tit, the CPC figures its time to stop comparing him to a rapist.

You start thinking that stomping Conservatives when they're down is unseemly, like kicking a puppy.  And then they pull shit like this and  you realize its not a puppy, but some loathsome, giant, vaguely puppy shaped bug.  And your resolve to stomp even harder is only increased.

O HOW THE MIGHTY HAVE FALLEN! JASON KENNEY IN PARTICULAR!

Former cabinet minister Jason Kenney gets into a brief twitter brawl with guy who claims to be a giant chicken on the internet, and loses:

Something I'm learning tonight: a lot of Trudeau supporters are like Trump supporters. They defend the indefensible, including bullying.

— Jason Kenney (@jkenney) May 19, 2016

And of course now he has blocked me...

The Bump Seen Around The World

Meh.  He bumped some people.  Who were stalling a vote on a bill that is literally a matter of life and death for some very sick people.  And if Don Cherry had got hold of this tape he'd've mentioned "Ellen The Diving Duck".  But whatever.  It doesn't look particularly good conceptually for the PM to do something like this, but actually the tape shows a tall good looking fellow in a nice suit hustling along some puffy little CPC dough-ball back to his seat so as to facilitate the passing of important legislation.  When people see it, they will rally to his side, twitter crowd not withstanding.

Ezzrata: "It Looks Like There's An Attempt To Decieve There"

Ezra Levant has appealed the defamation case brought against him by Khurrum Awan.  He lost that case.  Given Richard Warman's account of the appeal, I suspect he will lose it too.  That is all.

PS. Title is my favorite line from one of the judges during the appeal.  Other favorite lines, directed at Ezra's lawyer, include "Why this is important?" and "Why is this relevant?"

Life In Scarborough: Jobs That Won't Exist Tomorrow, In Scarborough

I was sitting in my favorite Scarborough workin' man's pub today, listening to a couple of truck drivers talk. They had just got off shift and were discussing an accident on the 401.  "Scrape 'em off and get it clear" was their general attitude (although I should note it doesn't look like anyone was injured in this particular incident).

They're both nearing 60; they talked of when Kingston Road was called Highway 2, and York Road before that, conveying traffic from Toronto to the Eastern settlements a century ago.  Because they drive, and this kind of history is important to them.  Then they got talking about "self driving vehicles" for a bit, skeptically and cautiously.  But they're fine.  They'll retire before that wave of innovation hits.  But after them comes a vacuum.  Because a self-driving car won't "know" anything; it will just store data.