The Future Of The Green Party Of Canada: Glory Or Oblivion?

The CDN Green Party is in tough these days.  Some are suggesting they throw in the towel and throw their voters to the federal Liberals.  But I can't say who exactly because I can't find the link.  But believe me.

But I think that kind of thinking gets it backwards.  The Green Party should continue to exist as an entity that attracts between five and ten per cent of the vote nationally so the big progressive parties have to fight for those votes, to offer them something.  So if  rogue NDPer Bruce Hyer goes GPC and doubles their numbers in HOC, and presumably provides a funding boost as well, then this is for the greater good.

That is all.

PS.  If he goes LPC, then that's OK too.

Whither The Green Party Of Canada?

...the local [Green Party] Electoral District associations were largely formed to capitalise on the Revenue Sharing agreements between the Green Party`s head office, and the local electoral units. Any local riding that met the basic criteria of maintaining a local organisation would receive a significant share of the per vote subsidy then on offer under the elections finance act. The central party had a perverse incentive inasmuch as their own revenues would decline every time a new local organisation was formed to take advantage of this revenue sharing deal, so perhaps it ought not surprise us that zero resources were allocated to local organising of grass-roots Green Party riding associations. On the part of the Electoral District Associations, virtually all local ridings that had more than 3 or 4 active members had already formed their EDA before Elizabeth May was elected leader of the GPC. Most of them coasted along under the Revenue sharing agreement, accumulating a small stream of cash for the next general election.

But of course revenue sharing is done, and you can see the result in the chart below:

The blogger I swiped all this from thinks there's an opportunity for the LPC in all of this, if the through a few bones to GPC supporters.  One is marijuana legalization/decriminalization, which is now party policy.  The other is a preferential ballot which, I am afraid to say, is probably off the table for the foreseeable future.

Green Party Prepares To Commit Self-Hippycide?

Looks like I've come down with the feared summer cold, so I can't really do this one justice. But the political event of this season will be the Green Party leadership convention in August. Party Leader Elizabeth May, who could have run and won as a Liberal in any number of ridings around Canada, but instead attempted out of the goodness of her heart to wield this pathetic band of drug dealing hippies and crystal waving amateur psychics into a legitimate political force--and apparently succeeded, as the latest polls have them with enough support to win a couple of seats out in B.C.--may well be ousted in the name of "grass-roots democracy". WTF? In brief: the Party may demand Ms. May fight a leadership campaign and, if so, she may tell them to go blow it out their ass.

I could go on and on about how stupid the Greens are being here, because basically they amount to nothing without E. May. But I won't. I'll just point out that, once she is gone, at least half of the eight to twelve per cent of the electorate GP Canada commands will redistribute to a party that doesn't raise funds via salmon bakes or selling you magic mushrooms out of the back of a Volkswagen van. In our fragmented political land-scape, that's as big a political "re-alignment" as we are likely to see in awhile.

Coalition Now? No!

Its time to throw some cold water on talk of an NDP/Liberal Coalition. Lets start with blogger Dan Arnold, expanding on pollster Frank Graves' claim that an NDP/LPoC merger would not be "perfectly efficient"--that is, not all NDP or LPoC supporters would migrate over to the new political entity:

I'd say "not perfectly efficient" is a gross understatement. When the Alliance and PCs merged, they managed to keep a whopping two-thirds of their 2000 vote (from 44.3% combined in 2000 to 29.6% in 2004)...this, despite being given the gift of Adscam. And remember, that was a reunion - this ain't. By Graves' own numbers, just 37% of Liberal voters list the NDP as their second choice, while 35% of NDP voters list the Liberals as their second choice.

Let's run a quick experiment on the 2008 vote totals. Let's say 80% of the Liberal vote decides to vote for the new Liberal Democrats and their catchy Red and Orange colour scheme, 10% votes Conservative, and 10% stay home and watch American Idol. For NDP voters, I doubt the transfer would be quite as fluid - after all, the new party would be led by a Liberal and if NDP voters really cared about stopping Harper or being in power, they'd just vote Liberal in the first place. So, maybe half of them go along with the deal, a quarter vote green, and a quarter stay home. In terms of popular vote, that would actually work out to a 73% vote transfer to the new party...above the Alliance-PC merger rate.

Another point: negotiating a merger would be a long, fraught process. A race for the new party's leadership would be required, and a convention, and etc. etc. Lots of money, lots of of time, and no reason for Harper not to drop the writ at an inconvenient moment. If you worry about preventing a CPoC majority more than you worry about the fact that after a mere four years on the outside, some Liberals are jonesing uncontrollably for a return to power, then this is a mess to be avoided. Remember, the Reform/Progressive Conservatives occurred in the shadow of a majority government; they had plenty of time to get their act together. Our new entity would not have this luxury.

Crafting an NDP/LPoC working arrangement should our next election give these parties the largest block of seats in the HOC would be something I could get behind. But why worry about it now? People talk about the recent partnering between the U.K.'s Cameron and Clegg; remember, however--this did not become a viable option until several weeks into that particular election campaign. None of the major U.K. parties were willing to assume and prepare for their own defeat in advance.

Finally, lets assume (and its a pretty good assumption given the current state of the polls) that our next parliament looks pretty much like this one. That is, a Tory minority, probably with a few less seats than they currently hold. What happens then?

Well, most likely Stephen Harper retires. Jack Layton too; he's been NDP head for a long time, and the party's support with him in that position has most likely peaked. He has also been fighting cancer. Most intriguingly, there have been rumors that, should Elizabeth May not win a seat in the House (and she won't, given that her opponent is Garry Lunn), she will step down as Green Party Leader. That leaves Michael Ignatieff as the last person standing (assuming Liberals don't panic and dump him, or he doesn't quit and retreat into academe) and the other parties in some turmoil. Green voters would be especially ripe for plucking because, lets face it, after Lizzy May they're back to a gang of aging hippies raising money by selling dream-catchers and holding salmon bakes.

In short, for the Liberal Party of Canada, patience may bring opportunity. Panic inevitably precedes a rout.

Green Party Prepares To Self-Immolate

Council has voted to draft a motion to amend the Part by-laws regarding a leadership race to submit to the membership at the August BGM in Toronto. In the interim, the Leadership race fairness committee has been tasked to prepare the terms and conditions of the race. These terms and conditions will be predicated on the terms and conditions of the last race. For those interested, Steve Kisby chairs that committee, and I’ll publish the names and email addresses of all the members in an upcoming post.

Dear Green Party members: Elizabeth May is way too good for you. If she should lose any silly little leadership race, or decide that's its really not worth playing den mother to a gang of ungrateful children for about $50,000 a year and refuse to participate, then you will be truly fucked, returned to square one, raising funds by holding salmon bakes and selling magic mushrooms out of the back of your old Volkswagen van.

For the less addled among you, may I suggest this alternative.