The UpSide And DownSide Of The Tories Moving Right

...and going all SoCon, and etc.

The Upside:

"Harper's approval rating is in the 90s for Conservative supporters,' Graves said. 'There's a vivid gap between the Conservative base, who are very happy with the general direction of the country, and everyone else.'"

The Downside:

Asked which party they would support if an election were held tomorrow, 36.7 opted for the Liberals while 30.2 per cent chose the Conservatives. About 15.5 per cent supported the NDP, while the Green party was the choice of 8.1 per cent and the Bloc Québécois was backed by 9.4 per cent.

Tory supporters sound like they are eager to become the Official Opposition, again. Unless they've figured out how to vote twice.

PS. 36%/30% seems a very important ratio the last couple of elections, being more or less what the range of what Libs/Tories have earned over the last decade or so (since Martin's first Gov.). Makes me wonder if most of the changeable minds in Canada change from Lib. to Tory and vice-versa. Have I, as a Lefty Lib arguing for an outreach to NDP/Green voters, been barking up the wrong tree all my adult life?

Could Ezra and Five Foot Be Exaggerating?

From Ezra's blog, a number repeated again and again throughout the blogosphere:

I'm still thinking about that amazing 600-person town hall meeting in London, Ontario on Monday night.

Paul Berton, explaining why the London Free Press didn't bother to cover the event:

"The event was discussed and considered. It was never actually rejected, but simply didn't make the cut, for reasons, as you have so astutely observed, mostly related to staffing.

"That is not unique. You should know there are dozens of other events each year attended by 300 or more people that we also do not cover, mostly for similar reasons, although space and timing are also factors."

So, how about this as a standard rule-of-thumb: take everything the Ez says and divide by two.

h/t

Note: this is Berton's response to an email complaint. Read the whole thing and you can see that the "300" figure is originally raised by the complainer.

The Effect Of Galactic Cosmic Rays On Earth's Climate = Sweet FA

From Realclimate:

Galactic cosmic rays (GCR) are energetic particles originating from space entering Earth’s atmosphere. They are an important source of ionization in the atmosphere, besides terrestrial radioactivity from e.g. radon (naturally emitted by the Earth’s surface). Over the oceans and above 5 km altitude, GCR are the dominant source. Their intensity varies over the 11 year solar cycle, with a maximum near solar minimum. Carslaw et al. give a nice overview of potential relations between cosmic rays, clouds and climate. Over the first half of the 20th century solar irradiance has slightly increased, and cosmic rays have subsequently decreased. RC has had many previous posts on the purported links between GCR and climate, e.g. here, here and here.

[...]

The authors concluded that this was “far too small to make noticeable changes in cloud properties based on either the decadal (solar cycle) or climatic time-scale changes in cosmic rays.” .... More studies of this kind will undoubtedly come up with different numbers, but it’s perhaps less likely that the qualitative conclusion, as quoted above, will change dramatically. Time will tell, of course.

I've written a couple of times on this topic, although admittedly the technical nature of the subject matter gets to (and beyond) the limits of my comprehension. For example, one theory linking GCRs to climate change argues that increases in solar activity (measured by sunspot numbers) drives an increase in the force/velocity of the solar wind, which in turn sweeps away Cosmic Ray particles that might otherwise reach Earth's atmosphere. Cosmic radiation in Earth's atmosphere drives ionization, which drives low cloud cover (LCC). Thus, high levels of solar activity mean low levels of sunlight-reflective LCC, from which follows an increase in global mean surface air temperatures (Global Warming).

Last year, some research was done last year by U.K. physicists T. Sloan and A.W. Wolfendale; they located short term increases/decreases in CR intensity in existing data sets (Forbush decreases, for example), and looked around for corresponding changes in LCC (low cloud cover) indexes.

They found no such increase. Israeli astrophysicist N.J. Shaviv criticized their work here, and Mr. Sloan was kind enough to respond on this very blog, here.

The Ballad Of Steve And Brian

Grit-Girlesque, with an historical account of the long, somewhat complicated relationship between the two men.

Lets just say that if there had been same-sex-marriage 15 years ago, it wouldn't have worked out for them.

Texas Governer Talks Treason

Send in the Tanks, Obama! Give the crazies a whiff of grapeshot.

Because Its All Fun And Games Until A Bomb Goes Off

Of course the American Homeland Security agency is keeping an eye on the U.S. right-wing fringe.

Remember, before Bin Laden and Al Qaeda the most successful terrorist group in the U.S. was Timothy McVeigh and the Militia movement.

B.C. NDP Enviro-Perfidy Pays No Polling Dividends!

"I am fricken' doomed," said B.C. NDP Leader Carole James, "So...totally...fricken...doomed!"

Bourque Finds One!

Headline on Bourque:

ANALYST STILL SEES VALUE IN CANWEST

He's, like, a stealth analyst.

From The GaltList

GaltsList Classifieds is a place for like-minded individuals to exchange goods and services on the terms they choose. There’s been a lot of discussion recently about the phenomenon of “Going Galt.” GaltsList recognizes that each individual may understand this differently and we encourage you to use this service based on your own interpretation.

What GaltsList provides that other services do not is the upfront answer to the question: Can we make a non-standard deal? GaltsList encourages creative self-sufficiency. What this means to you is up to you.

Placing a classified ad is currently free of charge. That might change.

So, what are they selling on The GaltList? Well, so far, some desert land outside of Yuma, for a trailer, and another FSBO in the same place. (Some Libertarian must have gone bust in Yuma; my folks ditched their modular in late '07 and its been downhill ever since in that town).

And there's a couple of unemployed Libertarian IT Guys plugging their services, one of them ready to work for $75.00 ( I hope thats per hour, but the ad isn't exactly clear).


Libertarians: like hippies without the hippy chicks.

H/T CC.

What Remains Of The NDP When They Abandon The Environment?

A sepia tinged photo of elderly unionistas, strumming "We Shall Overcome" on an old guitar and wearing their red berets.

In B.C., the rot is particularly advanced.

Your Daily Nazi: Nazis Claim Credit For Research In Levant's Shakedown

Levant relied heavily on research and work done by Fromm, Lemire, me and other Stormfront posters, but at the same time took a shot at us by calling people like Lemire "hate-mongers". His friend Steyn is saying how Levant is sticking up for us all, yet Steyn refuses to lend support to Lemire's constitutional challenge. Steyn and Levant are in it for the money and self preservation, not for the greater good.

Of course, it doesn't mean what Levant and Steyn are doing is not a positive for us in general. Maybe with their help, Lemire can take down Warman and the CHRC in his constitutional challenge. After all, levant mentions Stormfront in his book, and I'm sure a few people will investigate on their own and check our site out.

Any publicity is good publicity.

I've been saying for ages now that most of what's in ShakeDown and in Ezra's legal defense has been stuff regurgitated from Neo-Nazi websites. If you want to know why he's likely to lose his defamation case, and why his crusade has been shunned by lawmakers (even if embraced in the MSM) then that's why.

You can read the origonal post here, on Stormfront itself, if you are so inclined.

Which Side Of The Wedge?

I am torn over the whole Jason Kenney/CAF showdown. Undoubtedly, Kenney is playing a crude form of wedge politics and his unilateral withholding of funds sets an unhealthy precedent.

On the other hand, CAFs leadership as currently constituted are a bunch of dicks and have used their public funds (and the public profile that dispensing these funds has given them) for unsavory extracurricular politicking.

This story from The Embassy is about as sympathetic account as CAF and Co. are likely to get.

Talk About Unintended Consequences

MONTREAL _ Canadian forestry giants Domtar (TSX:UFS) and AbitibiBowater (TSX:ABH) are seeking millions of dollars in U.S. tax credits by transforming an alternative fuel called black liquor derived from pulpmaking into much needed cash.

Tax credits for technological innovation, eh? A good thing, eh? Except that isn't what's happening here. The forestry companies are moving to take advantage of a loop-hole in an alternative fuels tax credit from the 2005 U.S. highway bill.

You see, one by-product of the wood pulping process is this stuff called "black liquor":

Here's how it works. Wood chips are cooked in a chemical solution to separate the cellulose fibers, which are used to make paper, from the other organic material in wood. The remaining liquid, a sludge containing lignin (the structural glue that binds plant cells together), is called black liquor. Because it's so rich in carbon, black liquor is a good fuel; the kraft process uses the black liquor to produce the heat and energy necessary to transform pulp into paper. It's a neat, efficient process that's cost-effective without any government subsidy.

In other words, the paper industry produces much of the fuel it uses to make its products in the very process of making those products. It is, in that limited sense, a green industry. But the 2005 tax bill

...included a fifty-cent-a-gallon credit for the use of fuel mixtures that combined "alternative fuel" with a "taxable fuel" such as diesel or gasoline.

So clever heads within the paper industry figured: why not mix "black liquor" (an alternative fuel) with diesal (a "taxable fuel") and claim some of those government millions, even though the end result is to increase CO2 emissions (from burning the added diesel).

Domtar, though a Canadian company, is retrofitting its U.S. plants to get a piece of the action. But what about Canadian companies that only have plants in Canada? Suddenly, they are put at a competitive disadvantage, making the same pulp with higher production costs. So what do they do? Lobby for a similar tax credit on this side of the border. Pulp industry reps have already met with Stockwell Day over the issue.

(On the slightly more sane side, there is also an effort being made to convince the Obama administration that this was not what the original credit was intended for, and to have the wording changed to stop the fuel mixing practice.)

My Sentiments Exactly

How did you even get associated with the death and subsequent resurrection of Jesus anyway? Pretty sure there is minimal bunny presence in the Bible.

The Prime Minister Shall Be Otherwise Engaged

One of the surprises in arrangements for the summit is the absence of Canada's prime minister, Stephen Harper, from those expected to address the ceremonial opening session.

One day this joke will stop being funny. Until then...

PS. Penlan notes in the comments that Harper will be the warm-up act for Hugo Chavez at the plenary session beginning on Saturday morning (April 18).

Pork

Conservative Andrew Coyne bitching about it:

Conservatives now go about the country boasting about the pork that they’re bringing to the ridings.

Conservative MP Brad Trost dishing it out.

See Brad? You're gonna make Andrew cry.

Chasing Kinsella

Remember the "cat's meat" mini- scandal and the CCCA (Chinese-Canadian Conservative Association), that did so much to keep it in the news:

The unidentified CCCA member, however, said the group actually had been contacted by the PMO with suggested "talking points" and asked to hold the press conference.

The PMO did that? Don't they have an economic collapse to manage or something?

(PS. Overall, a good piece on the news behind the news, as it were. I always like reading about the various community groups and how they interact/connect-up with the larger political parties. This one is run by Alex Yuan, P.C. candidate for Richmond Hill).

Two Environmental Proposals Up For A Vote At Liberal Convention

One resolution, proposed by the Quebec wing of the party, calls on a Liberal government to unconditionally commit to meeting the Kyoto Protocol targets, enacting legislation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that would include 'establishing a carbon tax, a cap and trade system or a combination of both.

This one's not so good. Committing to Kyoto at this point is purely symbolic, and I'm not sure how effective the symbolism can be anymore. Copenhagen 2009 is the new game in town and things are looking a bit rocky. While I doubt that a pure collapse in talks is possible, you could wind up with something so watered down that the goals become purely aspirational, on a world-wide basis.

Why not commit to an aggressive Green approach in Copenhagen? Look forward, not backward.

As for the carbon tax, well you could change the phrasing to something like "and/or" and keep the tax as one possible policy tool. Or you could excise it entirely. As written, this sounds like its an inevitable part of the policy mix.

Another, proposed by the British Columbia wing of the party, calls on a Liberal government to consider 'all mechanisms of investment, incentive and taxation' to combat global warming and stimulate sustainable economic growth.

Love the "investment, incentive" part. The Federal Libs should be looking to Dalton McGuinty on this one. He has made a decision that our laid off auto workers are going to manufacture the machines that power tomorrow's green economy. Again, the reference to a carbon tax is optional, IMHO. Has it, in any form, been made toxic on account of The Green Shift?

I dunno. But I am glad to see that the party hasn't entirely given up on the issue. And I hope these resolutions send a signal to Mr. Ignatieff that he can't just blow it off. You wanna be Liberal leader, got gotta occasionally do something Liberal.

Note: Actually, Taylor has the entire Quebec resolution here. It is not as bad as I thought, although most of the points made above still apply.

A Moral Compass, Pointing To HELL

Not sure which is more appalling, the fact that Stephen Harper is the guy ultimately behind last week's "Mulroney Not A Tory" stories, or the fact that the CPoC is demanding Mulroney pay them for the privilege of rejoining:

"The Conservative Party of Canada has no lifetime members," [Conservative party president Don] Plett told the news service.

He said the party would "absolutely" accept Mulroney back as a member, provided he ponies up the $35 for a five-year membership.

You know, if Mulroney is having trouble with this, I hear Iggy's been raking in the cash. Could the Liberal Party of Canada spare a few bucks to make Mulroney a CPoC member again?

Didn't I Just Say That?

...if Harper's recent references to faith and morals are part of a new strategy to play the social conservative card -- then one conclusion comes into focus. The Conservatives are more rattled by recent events than they've let on, to the point where they're contemplating abandoning eastern Canada and any hopes of a majority and retreating to their western stronghold.

I did, but I was funnier.