If a provincial election were held tomorrow, the Progressive Conservatives under Tim Hudak would receive 37% support among decided voters (up 3 points), while Premier Kathleen Wynne and the Liberals would receive 32% of the vote (up 1 point). Andrea Horwath and her NDP are very much in the hunt at 27% support (down 4 points), while some other party (including the Green Party) would receive 5% of the vote (up 1 point). Two in ten (20%) Ontarians remain undecided, which is a very high percentage.
Well, first thing to note is the NDP's marked lack of momentum. Or more precisely, its surfeit of negative momentum. It reminds me of this:
The second thing is that, should an election call come in the next month or so, the OLP is in way better position than in 2011. Especially when you consider all the polls in their entirety. Note that this Meta approach reveals the most evident trend even more clearly. Andrea Horwath's NDP are currently sucking monkeys. Discretion is the better part of valor, Andrea. Think of that. There's a time for retreat, and then there's a time to bust a shit-flyin'-out-yer-pantleg-running-away-like-crazy move. Maybe now is that time, hmm?
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