Thursday, May 14, 2015

That Poll...

Its just one poll, and a preliminary result as well.  But pretty damn interesting.  And not entirely surprising given Notley's victory out West.  It will be important to see the regionals.  Given my previous analysis I would not be surprised if the NdD national number depends heavily on gains in the Western provinces.  

The problem for both the LPC and CPC is that the Notley effect--for surely Mulcair and the federal NDP has little to do with this sudden surge--will probably last until after election day, especially if the new Alta. gov. doesn't do anything crazy in its first budget next month.  Not that they won't get attacked by the usual suspects anyway, but they would do well by their federal cousins to present as small a target as possible.  Save the mass beheading of tar-sands executives until next year.

As for the LPC, well, being in a statistical tie a few months out from E-Day is hardly a disaster, and now the Tories may have to start spreading around some of their attack ad money.  Some are advocating panic.  On the other hand my counsel is to maintain a stiff upper lip and plow onward.  

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