The EKOS poll: @ThomasMulcair picking up all the marbles as @JustinTrudeau fades http://t.co/g8KcxAgEJo #cdnpoli #NDP pic.twitter.com/2bLoHWFDUE— Chris Markevich (@cmarkevich) June 5, 2015
They've done a few smart things, and had some good luck. And of course, they are the only party not getting caught in the spatter of the Senate scandal. The deal breaker for me with the NDP has always been environmental policy (and incompetence in office, but leave that aside for now). They've always dumped their green wing when their brown wing (unionistas) complained. BCers will remember the sell-out at Clayoquot Sound. So they would have to assure me they won't go all pragmatic if elected.
As for the LPC, some might advocate panic. My own opinion is that the "sunny ways" thing has gotten old and Justin and Co. need to show a few teeth. Angry Tom is catching on because people think there are legitimate causes for anger out there. I would forgo the communist beard and the pop-eyes and the gritting teeth, obviously. But something has to be done.
And for those people wondering about the solidity of the CPC base. Nobody pre-2011 figured the Libs would ever fall under 30%, then 25%, and then... Of course Iggy was like King Midas in reverse...But still.
Considering that in the US the total Dem vote for Congress is on the order of a million votes more than the GOP gets, even assuming this trend has any staying power one would want to see a riding-level analysis before drawing many conclusions. Potentially this is all the Cons need.
However, based on these numbers and given the provincial breakdowns, analyst Paul Barber, who blogs as TC Norris, says a tie or something very close to it would be the likely outcome.
Barber (TC Norris) is suggesting cons 125, ndp 125. libs 83 greens 1 block 4
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