If You Haven't Noticed Yet

...the economy is under-performing:

The Bank of Canada signalled Tuesday that it's lowering its forecasts for economic growth in the second half of 2013 and possibly for next year, citing a more prudent consumer and an export sector that has yet to fully recover.

Senior deputy governor Tiff Macklem said the central bank no longer expects the July-September period to grow at a rate of 3.8 per cent as previously forecast.

Instead, the bank says the third quarter will likely show an economy that advanced at a more moderate pace of 2.0 per cent to 2.5 per cent, the same speed it now expects will continue in the fourth quarter. Previously, it had penciled in a 2.5 per cent expansion for the last three months of the year.

That's why you feel bummed-out and shitty when you look at your pay-cheque.  As for the political consequences, well, bad for Darrel Dexter and, you would think, Kathleen Wynne, though that is not obvious from any polling I've seen.  Good news for Justin Trudeau: the Harper government can't keep saying its steak when its spam forever.

Summer Is Almost Over

..and poli-talk turns from the wan mellow of good ganja  to the economy, which ended Q2 with an enormous thud:

On a monthly basis, real GDP by industry declined 0.5% in June.

Work it out and that means less than two per cent growth for the year as a whole.  Mind you, one bad month does not a downturn make.  But it looks like the negative effects of Alberta's floods will be showing up in GDP reports still to come, and even afterwards there's nothing to suggest that growth into 2014 and even 2015 will be anything but anemic.  If the Harper Tories want to make this their focus, then the opposition should encourage them.

Unemployment Numbers: Most Important News During A Slow News Day

Led by declines among youths, employment decreased by 39,000 in July, and the unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage points to 7.2%. With this decrease, employment gains have averaged 11,000 per month over the past six months, slower than the average of 27,000 observed during the preceding six-month period.

The experts CTV consulted dispute some of the specifics of the report, but it is nevertheless in line with the notion of a struggling economy that has yet to find a second gear.  Worth noting that, among the provinces, Alberta is still a strong performer.  But the short-term negative economic impact of its flood this summer won't be known for another month or two, and they will probably be enough to pull down the national numbers.

As to the political significance: 2015 is coming soon.

A Cheery Chart For A Friday Morning

Unions Not In Decline (Quite)!  Time to slam a celebratory  6-pack in the parking lot, lads!  Then its off to build cars.

Our Economic Future

Quite middling.  Because it was pretty middling when the leading indicators were running alot higher.  Manufacturing was particularly crap, which is bad news for Ontario.

Ouch

Crap GDP numbers for May make the Bank of Canada's 2nd Quarter 1.5 per cent growth figure very difficult to achieve.  Crap numbers from the US, and the antics of tea-partiers in Congress, make more crap numbers likely in the near future, suggest that any "re-acceleration" of growth in the second half of 2011 is going to be pretty subdued. 

You know, in politics, timing is everything.  Whose idea was it to call an election when things were looking good for the gov., rather than waiting for the economy to soften and then blast them for that every day?

Whoopsie! There Goes the Tory Good News Story Of The Day

A surprise decline in jobs? Actually, the numbers aren't too bad. Full-time work was up alot, but part-time work down even more, which can be interpreted to mean that temps are being added to the payrolls permanently, ie. the quality of work is improving. In any case, the gov. will probably emphasize the full-time work figure and a small decline in the unemployment rate; the opposition will lean on the straight job loss number. Whichever way you slice it, the professionals were expecting a much stronger performance.

The Most Important Political Numbers You Will Read Today

...have nothing to do with last night's by-elections. They're the qaurterly and monthly GDP numbers from Stats-Canada:

Real gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.3% in the third quarter, following a 0.6% gain in the previous quarter.... On a monthly basis, real GDP by industry declined 0.1% in September.

And, in short, they stink: under-performing both for the month and the quarter. This is the kind of drip-drip of bad economic news that eventually sinks a government. Eventually being the operative word.

Welcome (Back) To Hard Times

Leading indicators fall for the first time in over a year. Manufacturing, so important to seat rich Ontario, goes into the tank. And meanwhile the Tories are acting like the BOD of the workhouse in Oliver Twist. Canadian's have given the Tories a pass during the 1st dip of this recession; if there's a 2nd, I don't think they shall be so lucky.

PS. Title is my take on the title of E.L Doctorow's wonderful first novel. It's a Western, like Cormac MacCarthy but without all the bullshit fake biblical prose.

Good Luck

John Ivison on Nigel Wright:

People who know him, say Mr. Wright is a small government enthusiast when it comes to the economy and is a “moderate so-con” on social issues. But one member of the Conservative caucus who has known him for decades, said Mr. Wright is likely to focus on the economy and not wander into areas of social policy, such as the census, which have gotten his predecessor into so much trouble.

Economists on the economy:

OTTAWA - Canadian economy watchers could see something in the coming week they haven't seen for a while - a negative reading on gross domestic product.

Statistics Canada is scheduled to provide its GDP report for July on Thursday. Economists polled by Bloomberg expect it will show a 0.1 per cent decline in overall economic activity for the month. The previous report showed the economy expanding 0.2 per cent in June.

I wonder if the Tories wouldn't be better concentrating on other issues. The Bank Of Canada sees growth slowing in 2011 (and 2012), and it looks to be slowing even more quickly than they have forecast. Don't put your gun registry talking points away yet, methinks.

Congrats To The NDP On Gun Registry Vote

Turns out they were able to employ persuasion over the party whip, thus giving those MPs who might really be in tough next election a chance to look principled, while safe-seat folks like Stoffer could afford to switch sides. A bit more flexible than the LPoC approach, and even a little bit sneaky, which we appreciate in this corner.

Now onto the economy, where some economists--but I can't find the link--are predicting a negative GDP number for July.

What's Behind The Liberal Rebound?

Is it the census debacle? Maybe a little, in that its provided the Tories nothing but a month of bad news. Is it Iggy's summer tour? Maybe a little, in that the tour has provided Iggy with probably the most positive media coverage he's had since he became leader, and its always nice to have a captive bus-load of reporters before which to denounce the government's stupidity of the day.

But I think this

...is the elephant in the room, especially the last couple of data points where the line stops pointing up. Economic growth has not only slowed since March, its done so quite a bit faster than the Bank of Canada predicted. Now, our job numbers have been pretty good, but these tend to lag other indicators. Probably a fair whack of them were added on the assumption that the U.S. economy would pick up and we'd need those bodies to build stuff to sell to them. That assumption has not panned out. So who knows how long before they start being reversed? Maybe as soon as the employment report tomorrow. If not, then eventually: a more or less flat economy does not generate full-time positions for very long.

Anyway, I suspect people have looked around and discovered that things haven't got much better in the past six months or so.

Latest EKOS result here.

State Of The Nation, Sept. 2009

British Columbia Lights Big Spliff, Eats Mushrooms, Awaits End Of Recession, say RBC Economists

Economists Report Alberta Still Filled With Assholes, But Now They're Poor Assholes

RBC Economists: Saskatchewan Remains Knee Deep In The Cowshit

Manitoba Inuit Word For "Frozen Tundra", Economists Claim, Is Probably Not Even Real

Ontario, Noble Ontario, Rises Up And Extends Hand To Nation Full Of Unworthy Dickheads, Reports RBC Economics Unit

Economic Report: Quebec Fornicates Way Through Recession, Is Tired But Happy

RBC: Atlantic Canada So Far Down It Looks Like Up To Them, Can't Afford New Boots

An Election Now...In September...It Doesn't Matter

...because the economy, the issue that trumps all others, is still going to suck in the Fall. Everyone go enjoy the summer, except for Iggy and his circle, who should be huddled somewhere creating policy. Any policy, really, I don't even have to like it. Just so Iggy has something to say when they stick a Mic in his face.

Stop, Gritgirl! Stop!

You're gonna make Stephen Harper cry.

When Statscan Starts Spinning

...you know that its gonna be bad:

...[retail] sales are up in nine provinces. Woo hoo, the recession is over!

But if we take a reality check, and look not at December 2008 to January 2009 numbers, but January 2009 over January 2008, the result is brutal. I looked through the tables and we find that retail sales are down almost 6% over a year ago. Some of the sub-categories are much worse, such as auto sales, which are down 18%. That is deep recession territory.

[...]

All that the Daily tells us, in this context, is that December was really awful, and January was somewhat of an improvement relative to December. But ignoring the year-over-year trend is scandalous and irresponsible, and I for one would like to know who made that call over at Statscan. It just seems way too convenient that this analysis is in step with the federal government’s upbeat message track.

I've heard a few rumours that CMHC has considered soft-soaping their housing starts numbers, the argument being that you (as a data collection agency) don't want to do anything contribute to the overall negativity. Nevertheless, these analyses are supposed to be the solid ground against which all else econometric is measured. Start mucking around with them for (broadly) political reasons and you undermine trust in everything else you read.

I Slept With GritGirl

And here she is giving Harper heck for the latest Stats Canada Job numbers :

Contra what a few cynical types might think, GritGirl is not a product of the Liberal war-room. I know, and if she shows up at the convention in May, she likes rum and coke and becomes pliable after drink #4.

If the wife ever finds out, I did it all for Canada.

Canada At A Glance

From Canada Newswire:

Atlantic Canada is used to poverty and joblessness and, god love 'em, they'll be fine: BCL Economic Update

BCL Economic update says British Columbia is too stoned to care about something as Metaphysically Unheavy as an economic contraction

BCL Economic update says Alberta's economy is in a slump and the place is full of total assholes

BCL Economic Update says Saskatchewan's economy will lead the country but its flat and shaped like a rectangle

BCL Economic Update says Manitoba is largely a myth, and the name is a First Nation's Word for "frozen tundra", but it's economy is weathering the storm

Ontario's economic struggle continues as it shoulders burden for whole, ungrateful nation, says BCL Economic Update

BCL Economic Update says Quebec as bitchy as Alberta, but has great cheese and Mitsou, and a mild recession will barely put a damper on the orgy

Economageddon!

Jesus, when we Liberals return to power there'll hardly be anything left to pillage.

Mind you, if you can keep your job during a Depression you can make out like a bandit. The wife and I are doing okay so far. In six months or so, if everything continues on an even keel, we might pick up a couple of slaves.

Canadians Want Green Budget

I have never heard of the company (Multi Réso), and the timing is suspect, but the message seems consistent with earlier surveys:

The findings also suggest that Canadians do not want their governments to ignore health and the environment in efforts to jump start the economy. Health is one of the top two priorities for 42% of Canadians, followed closely by the environment, with 38%.

The most interesting material lies in the regional breakdowns:

The findings suggest that a good part of the population is not feeling the impact of the economic crisis or is not worried about the impacts at this time. About a third of Canadians (31%) and half of Quebecers (47%) do not rank the economy and jobs as either their first or second concern.

Of course that doesn't apply to Ontario, where 70% say the latter two are the most important concerns.