Michael Ignatieff Tribute

 ...is no longer a part of the  Liberal Biennial Convention program.  A fact that I will note without comment.

h/t

Iggy Rules Out Coalition

He's taken my advice:

"Whoever leads the party that wins the most seats on election day should be called on to form the government," Ignatieff said in a statement.

"If that is the Liberal party, then I will be required to rapidly seek the confidence of the newly elected Parliament.

"If our government cannot win the support of the House, then Mr. Harper will be called on to form a government and face the same challenge. That is our Constitution. It is the law of the land."

Although I'd like to think I put it a bit more elegantly. And I don't mind helping Iggy out, but if he wins the cost is going to be two (2) Senate seats. One for me, and one for my wife. And I want them close to the aisle, for bathroom breaks, and a pass to the Senate cafeteria. I don't need a big office, as I'll sleep when the upper chamber is in session, like everyone else.

Anyway, he can email me for a full list of my demands.

And, by the way...was that so hard? Two years to prepare for this day and this question--Coalition or no, Iggy?--and it gets fluffed.

Liberals To Oppose S-10, Other "Tough-On-Crime" Measures

With several tough-on-crime bills heading for debate in the Commons next month — including Bill S-10, which would see mandatory minimum sentences for marijuana possession and baking pot brownies — the question has largely been where the Liberals will stand on the bills.

At a press conference at the end of the Liberals' winter caucus in Ottawa, leader Michael Ignatieff signalled that his party was ready to oppose them.

Another small display of leadership from Iggy, though we shall if it holds up on the day of the vote. As for S-10, I think its another of those bills the Tories would prefer to campaign upon rather than pass. So if it dies, everyone goes home happy.

A Few Year End Thoughts

But few, and brief, because I'm feeling a bit lazy this morning.

In the face of polls that are essentially stagnant, fans of the LPoC should remind themselves of the victories they've managed to salvage in 2010.

First off, the Harper Government's only real attempt at altering the fabric of Canadian society--Bill C-391 to repeal the long-gun registry--failed. And, not only did it fail, its failure seems to have taken the wind out of further Conservative efforts to destroy the registry. No assurances obviously, that the Harper gang won't campaign yet again on a repeal during some hypothetical Spring election campaign, but I sense a certain deflation of spirits among their faithful. For example, no less a personage than newly minted Conservative MP Julian Fantino suggested after the defeat of C-391 that it was time to move on.

What was particularly satisfying about the gun registry debate is that, as the tooing and fro-ing came to a head, polls showed a strong swing in favour of retaining the registry. This demonstrates that progressive values can still win out in our fair land if progressives are willing to fight for them.

Also, even though many Lib partisans are not particular happy with our new Afghan mission (me among them), and even though the party's strategy and tactics in the run-up to the vote on that mission were substandard, in the end I think you have to chock this one up as a win for Michael Ignatieff in that the defections in party ranks that everyone was predicting simply did not materialize. If one test of leadership is the ability to keep your troops in line, Iggy has passed this test on several occasions during the past year.

Now, as for next Spring:

Barring a total climb-down by Prime Minister Stephen Harper on all of his major priorities, the Liberal Party will oppose the Conservative government’s budget, Michael Ignatieff says, greatly increasing the likelihood of an election call in February or March.

Well, its good to know that Iggy thinks the party is ship-shape for another campaign, and god knows they're alot more fun than watching the clown-show during question period, but I suspect this is still mostly bluster: the Libs will be able to negotiate enough out of Mr. Harper to find a means of supporting the 2011 budget. Or the NDP, who have had a rough couple of months, will. Or Mr. Harper will fly a plane over Quebec and shovel loads of English money out the side, and thus secure the Bloc's support.

No. I'm still betting on 2012.

This Argument Is Not Lost

MONTREAL — Michael Ignatieff says he's willing to go along with the idea of a vote in the Commons on Canada's decision to keep troops in Afghanistan until 2014.

Do it, Iggy.

As I hear the details of our new training mission explained, it seems to me that its a definite improvement on the old in that:

1) It gets Canadian troops out of Kandahar and into a relatively quiet part of the country--around Kabul, if I remember correctly. And if you recall the state of this debate even a year ago, it looked like our guys were going to be stuck in Kandahar forever or, if we did leave, it would be marching out without any assistance from our NATO allies.

2) It cuts Canadian troops from about 3,000 to 1,000.

Speaking personally, I could probably live with something along these lines. And I suspect there is a fair chunk of the population whose concerns are with the process by which the decision was made rather than the content of thatdecision. They too could probably be swayed. We just have to be sold on it.

So come out and sell it to us, Iggy.

What Steve V says.

What Journalists Do On A Slow Newsday

They speculate on leadership races to come. Its a harmless past-time though, generally speaking, a sign that nothing much is really going to happen in Ottawa over the course of the next few days.

And L Ian MacDonald does get about 3/4 of the conventional wisdom right: Jack Layton, Gilles Duceppe, and Stephen Harper--barring an increasingly unlikely Harper majority-will be gone after the next election. What I think he gets quite wrong is:

For Michael Ignatieff, who'll be 64 next year, his first campaign as Liberal leader will be his only kick at the can. The Liberal party will not give him a second chance, and the best he can hope for is to form a minority government.

This is asserted, not argued for, and since I'm feeling a bit lazy this morning, I'll just use MacD's own words to argue against him:

The problem for the Liberals in any leadership scenario is the thinness of the field. Bob Rae would be there for one last try. For Justin Trudeau, it's way too soon, as he would be the first to acknowledge. Dominic Leblanc? Yeah, right. Denis Coderre? Yikes.

The Liberals have another problem, other than a paucity of talent and new blood on the front bench, and that's money. It has taken candidates from the 2006 leadership four years to pay off their debts. The party itself is perpetually broke, and would be hard-pressed to raise the money to stage a three-day leadership convention.

Exactly, and that's why--barring an increasingly unlikely Harper Majority--the Federal Libs will keep Iggy around for at least one more cycle. There are other reasons, too.

Assuming another minority, where an election can come at any time, swapping leaders is a perilous course. Who wants to be stuck between when the writ is dropped? This is the same unfortunate logic that originally got Iggy into the post without a contested leadership race, and like it or not, it still applies.

More importantly, dumping leaders after every unsatisfactory election result tends to suggest that, at its core, the party is merely opportunistic--we'll try some of this and, heck, if this doesn't work, we'll try some of that. Successful parties typically make an investment in their leader that extends beyond one cycle. Think Dalton McGuinty in Ontario.

So, Iggy it is, for as far as it is possible to see. Better improve the flawed leader currently in place than start all over again.

A Dry Wit?

Monte Solberg on Iggy:

Unfortunately for him, it’s not working. In Question Period he’s still as dry as toast. He still seems to be without humour, the human touch, and, by definition, humidity.

I'm surprised only Chris Selley picked up on this one, but why would anyone read a sun OpEd piece to the end if they weren't paid to?

Iggy's Been Working Out

I've written once or twice about how Iggy should exit his summer tour physically: should he sport an Alberta beer gut, thus appealing to Der Volk and maybe making inroads into the Tory strongholds out West, or remain lean and efficient like the Eastern Liberal Hawk that seems to be his default setting?

And I'm proud to announce that it looks like Iggy's managed a classic Liberal compromise: nobody would dare call the man a scrawny elitist, but there's obviously a rowing machine at the back of that bus.

And he's been filing his fangs back a little, so as not to hurt anyone when he's baby-kissing. That too is good.

Victory will surely be ours.

Iggy Gives A Twitch

...on Global Warming. Not much. Just a twitch. Of course its difficult to make the connection between individual weather events and climate change, but...

Yeah, But Can Your Leader Do This?

Stephen Harper...very unlikely? He'd snap something. Jack Layton could probably break-dance while rapping in Lithuanian, but his party's full of weirdos. The Quebecois have their own ways of making fun, so why would Gil Duceppe bother? And its soo beneath Lizzy May's dignity.

So there really is only one choice, isn't there?

Fox News North Update: Holy Crap! Iggy DID attend Public School In Canada!!!

Brian Lilley:

As for which public schools he did go to, it appears Ignatieff was a student at Manor Park public school in Ottawa’s east end. After graduating from Upper Canada College he went on to the publicly funded University of Toronto.

This is the same Brian Lilley who, yesterday morning, implied that Iggy had spoken falsely about receiving a public education in Canada, and who seems to have spent the hours since rewriting the piece so he could maintain its sneering tone in the face of contradictory evidence. Being QMI, we'll never get a retraction out of him. But if anyone has the dough to threaten legal action, looks the Channel Ezra will be ripe for plucking. Gross factual errors here there and everywhere.

Iggy Starting to Fatten Up Nice

Policy differences aside, riding a bus for over a month would probably kill me. If I can't keep in motion my stomach starts to act up, my muscles cramp, and I become subject to random outbursts of extreme grumpiness. So if Iggy can survive until Nunavit without, for example, strangling an accompanying journalist for being an asshole, then he will have earned an enormous amount of cred in my book.

But he's going to wind up looking like Mike Duffy. Part of that is unavoidable, and if he wants to connect with Joe 6-Pack, he's gonna need a respectable beer gut. But hopefully someone has smuggled a stationary bike onto the bus, or he's staying at hotels with an indoor pool. Believe me, a half hour in the pool with help prevent heart problems and make him feel a little less bloated. Improve his mood too.

How To Gain Momentum In Canadian Politics

Go to Alberta, tell them their cowboy boots suck, their leader smells like the devil, and their dirty oil shall not sully the West Coast ; have your campaign bus stall on the road, thus unleashing all sorts of unfortunate metaphors.

Hey Presto! You're within three points of the ruling Torys! Gloriousness will out!

Iggy, Dancing

Don't know who the guy behind him is, but he appears to be doing The Zombie. More here.

Iggy Shows Flashes Of Gloriousness Re Coalition

He's dead on, as far as I'm concerned:

...the right way to do it is to run your flag up, (opposing parties) run their flag up, you fight like crazy, you put your choices clearly to the Canadian people, they make their choices and then you play the cards that voters deal you.

And a point I hadn't thought of:

Liberal strategists don't want to give ammunition to Harper's Tories, who so successfully demonized the 2008 coalition attempt.

And they don't want to make it harder for Liberals to win enough seats to make a coalition, much less a majority, possible. Strategists reason that New Democrats who want to defeat Harper would have little incentive to vote Liberal if they felt the Liberals would inevitably invite the NDP to join a coalition.

There's more, including comments on to what extent a Liberal-led coalition could work with the BQ. Kind of sounds like compromise between the advice given by Rob Silver and Scott Reid.

Another Pro-Accountability MP,

that journalists seem to have missed, is NDP MP for Burnaby-New Westminster Peter Julian, who has stated that:

...given the level of public skepticism.... the auditor-general should be invited to perform the proposed audit.

"I think this is one time when the public would probably agree with duplication and a secondary audit just to confirm how rigorous the financial accounting is with the House of Commons," he said.

Meanwhile, Iggy edges--clumsily--towards doing the right thing. If its any help, Iggy, The Onion Ring would want you too.

Love That Culture War

Its put a spring in Iggy's step, and an edge to his speechifying.

Trashing Iggy For Promoting Michaëlle Jean Is Crap

This is good populist politics. This a load of crap, of the same kind that's been slung alot the past couple of days. Normal people like the GG, would love to see her term extended, and would therefore have no trouble with Iggy making that suggestion. If Harper is so eager to see her gone, then let him explain why. Iggy's made more than a few mistakes lately, but the reaction to this has been so over-the-top that I'm inclined to think Canadian pundits, led in this case by Andrew Coyne and his frothing at the mouth on Sunday, have gone a bit mad.

In this case, I think they can safely be ignored.

A Bit O' Farm Policy

Iggy appeals to rural Canada:

Canada needs a national food policy that emphasizes locally grown products and healthier food for children, Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff said Monday.

And from the press release:

Environmental farmland stewardship, by strengthening Environmental Farm Plans, improving fertilizer and pesticide management, and rewarding farmers for their role in clean energy production and protecting wildlife habitat;

Not really an area where I have much expertise, but it seems to me that the appeal to buying locally, insofar as it has any appeal to farmers, would appeal primarily to small farmers. For a 1,000 acre outfit growing wheat and etc., selling to the local market would presumably be an negligible part of their business. Which perhaps means appealing to the kind of hobby farmers we have here in rural Ontario, or perhaps Que. or B.C., but not the big guys on the prairies.

As to "rewarding farmers for their role in clean energy production", I hope this doesn't mean more ethanol subsidies.

PS. From the details doc:

Further, as part of the Liberal commitment to quadruple Canada’s clean energy production, a Liberal government will invest significantly in the development of clean energy from Canadian farms – biomass, wind, solar and geothermal energy.

So a bit more than ethanol subsidies.

NDP Feeling Heat Over Gun Registry?

As Imp notices, Jack Layton is no longer "ruling out" whipping the New Democrat caucus over the final vote on Bill C-391. Hardly definitive language, but encouraging. Now that the NDP no longer has dissident Liberal MPs to hide behind, the hot potato lands in their lap, and I think they will look awful (at least to the progressive voters they share with the Libs.) if they allow Harper and Co. to pass this measure.

Which is why I think Iggy's laying the discipline on his own gang is good politics, even if the registry is repealed in the end. And even if you're a gun registry opponent that otherwise supports the LPoC: I mean, personal feelings aside, why would you not want somebody else to take the blame for its demise?