Not A Communist: Tom & Maggie

Actually this doesn't look bad on him.  Equivalent to finding out that Harper once played drums in a Hendrix cover band (he didn't).  Not sure there was any reason for the campaign to even formally address a clip that old unless they figured it worked in their favor.  And it does; if Tom secretly dug Thatcher  he can't be that bad, some might think. I imagine any real problem will come from the party base.  Mulcair has the delicate task of convincing the nation that the NDP's not  communist anymore while assuring the faithful that it still is.

Mulcair Makes Play For B.C. Vote

A damning report on Enbridge Inc.’s inept handling of the 2010 crude oil spill in Michigan should kill the Enbridge Northern Gateway Pipeline, NDP leader Thomas Mulcair said Tuesday in Victoria.

He said it right in the provincial capital, too, so everyone in B.C. will read about it or see it on the television.  I suspect the NDP have polls telling them how the issue plays out there.

Meanwhile LPoC interim  leader Bob Rae's latest intervention re the tar sands was watery mush served with decaf coffee.  Everyone is going to say that they are for the responsible development of our unconventional oil supplies, so Rae's remarks do nothing to distinguish the federal Liberals from its rivals.  I understand that he doesn't want to bind the hands of his permanent replacement, but only particular stands for or against particular projects (Northern Gateway, Kinder Morgan, Keystone XL) will count with B.C. voters come election 2015.

CPoC Attack Ad Is Pretty Generic

For what its worth, because I've given up trying to figure out whether my personal take on these things matches that of Joe 6-Pack, but  other than for the specific reference to "Dutch Disease" (which is not in the French version) this could be about any NDP leader of the past 30 years.  This says to me that the CPoC hasn't quite found Mulcair's Achilles Heel yet, the way they were able to successfully tag Iggy with the "elitist" label.  

May Another Man Win

The Libs have decided to let  Bob Rae run for the LPoC leadership.  Which is OK by me because I basically think he's served the party well, is not some kind of 5th columnist and etc., and really ought to be treated fairly and with respect.

I also don't think he's our  guy anymore.  Not so much because of his one rough term as premier in Ontario 20 years ago.  I think folks would forgive him for that.  Mostly because he's getting old and the kind of statesman-like but windy rhetoric he specializes in doesn't seem to work anymore in the HOC.  Canadians, on both Left and Right, want brawlers these days.  In a perfect world, he would be made ambassador to France or some other European country where he could end his career eating fried snails and sipping wine in cafes on the banks of winding rivers.

I'm also not entirely sold on Teenage Jesus, though if he were made Leader  I have no doubt he could shed some of his youthful clumsiness and compete an election or two down the road.  Which might be what the LPoC needs going forward--someone to reclaim the country after a disastrous Mulcair minority.  What I really wish is that Marc Garneau, or someone of equivalent substance, could grow himself a head of rock-star hair, which unfortunately is not likely in the cards at this late date.

 In any case, hair + gravitas = VICTORY. May we find all three.

The Next Wave Of Tory Ads?

 It has also been rumoured that the Tories are going to be going on an advertising blitz which will promote the benefits of the oil sands to the rest of the country. 

Spending Ontario, Que, and B.C. money to tell us all why we should have  Alta. pipelines shoved down  our throats would be a real waste of taxpayers $, and would be seen as such.  Which is why I don't think it will happen, though, frankly, I wish Mr. Harper would take this approach.

PS.  The rest of the piece through the link is typical tar-sands promoting crap.  

A "Gaffe", Eh? Part WOW!

We should all make gaffes like this.

But what does it really tell us, other than that the flailing hacks  of the Canadian pundisphere couldn't move public opinion with dynamite and a backhoe?

Well, consider this bit:

Also, 45% of respondents said a low Canadian dollar that supports manufacturing was better for the country than a high dollar bolstered by resource exports, compared to 35% who disagreed.


The issue was recently championed by Mr. Mulcair in his comment on Canada suffering “Dutch disease” — when a high currency value hurts blue-collar manufacturing jobs.


Have we entered a "post-Western" age--in the same way that over the last decade we entered a "post-Quebec" age--wherein we realize that all that "Western Alienation" nonsense was just a cover for an Albertan tendency to whine?  Have we finally realized that, if The West doesn't play nice, the only thing they'll be able to do with their oil is make tar-candles from it and sell them to one another?  And have we realized that Alberta doesn't even speak for The West anymore?  Because, as the figure below suggests, the NDP is quite competitive in Saskitoba:

And has the LPoC realized yet that the Mulcair NDP isn't just fumbling around, that they have a scheme to win specific seats in specific regions of this great land?  And do they realize that something similar will be required on their own part if they want to challenge for those seats?

A "Gaffe", Eh? Part Hmmm

The nation is split over Thomas Mulcair's "Dutch Disease" theory, with slightly more disagreeing than agreeing with the NDP leader.

Some surprising and not so surprising things in the regional numbers:

Most people polled in oil-rich Alberta and the rest of the Prairies disagreed with the NDP leader, while those in Quebec and British Columbia were most likely to agree with him. 

Given the mix of resource extraction versus manufacturing in the B.C. economy, these numbers make most sense  if you see the larger Dutch Disease hypothesis as a means of getting to an anti-Northern Gateway position.

As to whether his views have hurt Mulcair, it doesn't look the poll asked a simple horse-race question re voting intentions, but there is this:

The poll suggests less than half of Canadians had heard about Mulcair's comments.

If I were the NDP leader I would be saying a little prayer for the Canadian Sheeple.

A "Gaffe", Eh? Part Duh

Abacus Data finds 37% support for the Tories nationally, unchanged since January.

With newly installed leader Thomas Mulcair at the helm, the New Democratic Party has rocketed to 35% backing.

Far be it for me to contradict a polling company re their own poll, but Mulcair's original anti-tar-sands blast took place way back on May 5th; the Abacus poll was done on May 15th and 16th, right in the middle of the backlash.  To me that is not "too early" to measure the effect of his words on the NDP's popularity.  And so far they don't seem to have had any negative effect.  The next step is for Mulcair to visit Fort Mac and punch everyone he meets right in the kisser.  That might put the NDP over the elusive 40% mark.  People like a politician who will fight for their values.

A "Gaffe", Eh?

The New Democrats (36%) have moved into a narrow national lead over the Conservatives (32%). Liberals trail with 19 percent. Green support stand at seven percent support and the BQ has six percent (25% in Quebec).

So this poll was done May 7 to 9, though just released yesterday, after the Mulcair appearance on The House  (May 5) that set things off, but before the whole other week of yelling and screaming that followed.  A bit early to judge, but after the first four days of media "outrage", this poll shows no downward movement in the  NDP numbers.  And, just as an aside, back in 2008 Mulcair's regional strategy was offered to Dion and he turned it down out of sheer nice-guyishness, so somebody figured it might work back then too.

As to the cries of "divisiveness", well, depending who's making the charge, please hand me a barf bag.  Its like the Conservatives think wedge politics is their game and nobody else is allowed to play.

Mind you, its still early, and the next poll could see the NDP taking water over this.  But having the entire opinion page at  Postmedia angry at you doesn't signify that you've made a gaffe.  These days, with their readership numbers, it signals almost nothing at all.

Update: Steve V says gaffe!

NDP Liberal Merger Odds Now 0

The poll done by Toronto-based Forum Research Inc. this week shows the NDP was the choice of 36 per cent of decided and leaning respondents, with the Conservatives close behind at 33 per cent.


If you were an NDP MP/head of a local riding association/rank-&-filer why would you not want to see if the party couldn't win the big prize on its own?  After all, I don't think the Liberals ever did this well under either Dion or Ignatieff.


As a side note, the quality of Forum's work aside, their PR strategy seems quite clever.  Fling cheap robopolls out on every topic conceivable and bask in the MSM coverage you get as a result.  Run a google search: Forum returns 8 pages of results filtered to news ; Nanos--who also have a poll out this morning showing the two parties tied--just two.


And what these polls also indicate, to me anyway, is that the future of the LPoC is probably not with Bob Rae, who has easily been eclipsed by Mulcair this past month or so.  His statesmanlike demeanor seems more and more like a relic of the olden days.  The party should not be making it easier for him to run for permanent leader, and I am starting think they should putting impediments in his way so as not to scare off other potentials.

Whip It Good

Stephen Woodworth's  person-hood motion will not be defeated by Bob Rae's whipping or not whipping his caucus against the measure.  It will be defeated because Stephen Harper needs it to be defeated or he will see his real agenda--deregulation, rolling back environmental protections--go up in flames as he panders to the CPoC right wing.  Nevertheless,  Mulcair's move to whip his own people, despite their already unanimous opposition to the measure, was a pretty clever trick.  Since he's become NDP leader, opposition politics has become more about broad rhetorical gestures that project "strength" and "leadership" and less about the kind of nuance, statesmanship, and appeal to democratic principles that  Mr. Rae would like  to offer.  But that's tough.  In today's Ottawa, Rae's equivocation looks like weakness or collaboration, and if he can't play the new game he should retire from it.

On Uniting The Left

It's not Chretien's fault; he was too busy uniting the whole country against Quebec Separatists and Alberta Firsters.  But--and you know I have the little red LPoC card now and am seriously thinking of emailing them another fiver to support their efforts--if you look at Canadian history (esp. provincially) you see that the most common way in which parties "unite" is that one party's vote collapses and goes en masse to the other and all the infrastructure and support groups and organization that the first party has built up over the decades disintegrate and Zalmoids become B.C. Libs, and P.C.s become CPoCs, for example, and so on and so forth. 

If I were Mr. Mulcair and looking at a poll like this, that's the result I would be gunning for.

On Mulcair's Hair

Hair to a politician is like a ninja's sword, the essence of their very being.  OF COURSE the MSM should be debating Mulcair's beard.  I would be worried for our democracy if they didn't.  Personally, I'm not sold on it yet.  I'm also a little surprised no one has mentioned the man's rumbly baritone.  It gives me the shivers.

Brief Notes On Gerard Kennedy's Beard

I had heard rumours to the effect that Gerard Kennedy had "gone the full commie" (ie grown a beard), but now that I've seen pics, I am somewhat assuaged; I can still imagine doing a business deal with the guy, for example, which in many cases is simply inconceivable. 

I mean, a few Canadian politicians have made it work--Pablo made it work--but usually the result is disaster.  The beard wears the man.  And of course its not as bad as bald, which Mussolini ruined for generations of aspiring public servants. 

But if Gerard runs again, it should definitely come off.  The beard, I mean.  His other hair is, as per usual, excellently placed and coloured.