According to the Saturday's 's Washington Post www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/03/03/AR2006030300266.html, the Bush Administration will issue some statements, give some deadlines, and raise the pressure on Iran oh so gradually, culminating in "tangible and painful consequences" (says UN Ambassador John Bolton), if that nation decides to proceed with its uranium enrichment project.
All I can say is: get ready for the Iranian bomb. The Bush administration has already thrown in the towel on this one. The only matter really at issue is the mechanism by which blame is shifted to Europe and the U.N.
The bottom line is that neither the U.S. nor Israel can launch airstrikes on Iranian military facilities without losing the Shia in Southern Iraq. By losing the Shia in Iraq I don't mean losing the "battle for hearts and minds", I mean U.S. Forces suddenly being surrounded and outnumbered 100 to 1 by a bunch of crazed, gun-wielding lunatics who WANT YOU OUT OF THEIR FUCKING COUNTRY NOW! And when I say surrounded, I mean having all the supply lines and lines of retreat leading out of this desert shithole blocked.
Oh, there will be threats and endless diplomatic Blow-vating, but this story is told.
And you know what? In a year everybody will have become used to a nuclear Iran, just as they became used to a nuclear India, a nuclear Pakistan, and a nuclear North Korea.