Welcome Glen Murray, Ontario's New Minister Of The Environment

@Glen4ONT @jm_mcgrath You go get 'em.  Greenbelt is one of OLP's real achievements.  Builders hated it, but finally saw it worked. #onpoli
— Bigcitylib (@Bigcitylib2) June 26, 2014

Andrea Horwath: I'm Going Nowhere

No remose.  No regrets. No plan.  No future.   No clue.

Randy Hillier Speaks! Points Finger Of Blame!

Guy's definitely got class.  All of it 3rd.

From his facebook page; he's referring to this article.  Worth noting that, when Hudak was an advocate fior ditching the Rand formula, Randy was behind him 100%.  Randy's usually just right of Attila The Hun, but in the wake of the PCPO ass-whupp'n he's gone all soft and sensitive.

And its funny that today we learn that Tim Hudak considered naming the civil servants he intended to fire.  Randy talked him out of it but, apparently, he's willing to name a few names of his own:

This guy's the new PCPO leader.  Mark my words.

First Steps For New Wynne Majority

@SueAnnLevy @SueAnnLevy Ontario should name a new tax after you.  Call it "The Sue-Ann Levy levy".  #onpoli
— Bigcitylib (@Bigcitylib2) June 13, 2014

Things We Learned During Ontario Election 2014: Conservative Ideologues Should Be Convulsed With Doubt And Self-Loathing

Take Andrew Coyne, for example. This guy is known among Canada's literati as "the journalist who knows math".  He's always saying "Well, the iron laws of Economics will prevent that!" and so forth. And when he says it what he means is that your figgers don't add up.  So what happened when he realized that Tim Hudak's 1,000,000 jobs plan made no sense unless you divided all his numbers by 8?  He endorsed the guy anyway!  He essentially abandoned mathematical Platonism, implicitly denied the reality of the number line, turned all Constructivist or, god help us,  into some kind of  late Wittgensteinian.  He claimed, in effect: "Whatever! Numbers do what I tell them to!

He's certainly not the only person to exhibit the same hubris.  Anyone who endorsed the "Hudak Plan" in spite of the innumeracy at its heart falls into the same boat. And it was these guys, who were willing to offer the PCPO an intellectual version of affirmative action for conservatives--They're morons, but their heart is in the right place!  PASS!--who actually cost team Tory the election.

Because you can't run on an austerity platform with bad math in it!  Because austerity brings pain, and you have to be able to demonstrate to people that if you put all the minuses together the right way you get a big plus at the end. Eat your spinach now, and you will get pie later! If you can't demonstrate this, your austerity platform starts to look like gratuitous cruelty, and you like a jerk who can't add.  Eat your spinach now!  And that's all your getting!  Spinach!  Nothing but spinach!  Yea for spinach!

And in the end that is how Tim Hudak will be remembered.: as an innumerate jerk bearing spinach. And the Conservative movement as a whole has been revealed as punishment loving folk who fetishize certain numbers (that Debt to GDP ratio sure is huge!)  but have no real idea how to manipulate them correctly according to the eternal laws of rational thought.

And that's not a good place to be.

Analysis Of Gas Plants Scandal's Effect On Ontario Election Polls...Expressed In Concrete Poetry!

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Does Forum Poll Herald Liberal Majority?

This Ontario election may have recent precedents in Alberta and B.C.  There very tired governments were up against challengers who the governing party attempted to portray as "radical" during the course of the election campaign.  With some justification, in Alberta at least, as the Wildrose party of the time was indeed filled with kooks.  And successfully too.  In both cases it seems a late wave broke for the incumbents.  In Alberta a few polls seemed to pick up the first hints of this.  In B.C. everyone missed it.  Is this new Forum poll the first signs of a similar movement here in Ontario?

PS.  It is only Forum, I realize, though all the polls have been hovering in the same neighborhood lately.

New Oracle Poll Has Ontario Race In Dead Heat

Near identical numbers for PC and Liberal Party: The province-wide results show no movement from the PC and NDP since the May 26th data was released. There is slow upward growth by the Liberal Party from 31% to 35% (May 5th data and this poll). The PC had 42% in the first poll, dipping to 36% in the current poll. The NDP remain almost unchanged at 24%. 

The other important bit from this poll:

PC and liberals have almost equal support in "seat rich" GTA Region: PC 's have a sizeable lead in public support in three regions of the Province (Central, Eastern and Southwest). The NDP’s dominate the North Region and the Liberal's have healthy leads in Niagara/Hamilton and Metro region. The area where the NDP’s dominate have 10 seats. The area where Liberal's are most popular cover 32 Ridings or seats. The PC lead in areas accounting for 42 seats and the GTA Region where the Liberals and PC have similar support accounts for 23 seats. 

Though no seat projects are provided.  And of course the NDP, as they have this entire election cycle, just sit there like a dead fish at the bottom of a lake.

Innovative hasn't reported in awhile.  Wonder if they'll get one in before its all over.

Dear NDPers: The Time Has Come To Do The Right Thing And Abandon Your Party

Because it has already abandoned you.  I mean, Jack Layton carefully prepared your federal counterparts for his "move to claim the center".  And some of the changes he made, to your constitution for example, where he removed the stuff about property ownership being inherently evil because it suppressed revolutionary fervor, and that clause about castrating all the bosses and hanging them in a public square with their balls in their mouths...well I think we can all admit that they were kind of fringe-y policy elements that are best gone, can't we?  But Andrea Horwath...she just said "excuse the fuck me" and took off to a political place near where Atilla the Hun settled after he plundered the Balkans.  You don't owe her.  You owe it to yourself to stop Tim Hudak from implementing what we might call a "Maximum Horwath" approach to firing Ontario civil servernts.  Vote OLP and afterwards give Andrea her retirement presents. 

A longer version of this Op-Ed by OLP leader Kathleen Wynne appeared today in the Toronto Star.

New Ipsos, Not Bad

After all the kerfuffles New Ipsos shows OLP tied with decided voters and closer with  likelys  compared to last poll http://t.co/tuCCCy4Lum
— Bigcitylib (@Bigcitylib2) June 6, 2014

This was their last one. Jeez, I was looking forward to being depressed this evening.

New Ontario Poll: What Did I Say?

Before the Tuesday telecast, voters who tuned in said they preferred the Liberals over the Conservatives by 37 per cent to 31 per cent. Afterward, the Liberals were at 40 per cent and the Conservatives at 35 per cent.

I said this, if you're wondering.

Ontario Debate: BCLSB Analysis

Sat in a pub watching old MMA clips during the whole thing, waiting for my wife to do her physio.  Drank a couple of  pints, kept an eye on twitter as the poli-nerds fought it out.  It was almost like I was watching the Ontario election debate, except I wasn't so bored I wanted to pull my eyes out.  Final  analysis: I spent my time wisely, cradled over a beer.  And tomorrow, most polls will still show the OLP up by 5 or 6.

Poll Alert! New EKOS on Monday

@Bigcitylib2 monday, and for all the poll needy we are going to be doing a rollin poll fairly soon so numbers every day!
— Frank Graves (@VoiceOfFranky) May 31, 2014

X Ethical Oil SpokesThing Running For Tim Hudak

Jamie Ellerton, his name is, and he's running down in Parkdale High-Park.  Click through link below for more on him:

@SunNewsNetwork @JEllerton The old ED for @Ethical_Oil is running for Tim Hudak? The BCLSB file on him: http://t.co/HSuMHixehL #onpoli
— Bigcitylib (@Bigcitylib2) May 31, 2014

 His bio is interesting:

As the Executive Director of a national NGO, Jamie gave expert testimony to the House of Commons Finance Committee on the 2012-2013 federal budget.

The NGO he is referring to is, of course, Ethical Oil.  But note that he will not refer to it by name.

PCPO Candidate for Sudbury Paula Peroni: Job Losses Will Be In Other Ridings

They're still doing the calculations, but:

Peroni says the party's numbers "are indicating very minor numbers in job loss here in the city... what we're really after are the high-paid bureaucrats, the majority of which are in southern Ontario, central Ontario, so we expect very little impact here in Sudbury."

Fair enough. If they're mainly going after fat cats in the south, then let's see the numbers. This should be on the record, in case Hudak wins.

Over to you, PCPO candidates in and in:

You got some calculating to do.

The Shorter MaRS "Scandal"

In 2002, Ontario's Progressive Conservative government, eager to throw off the notion that it hated science and evidence, ordered the building of some big buildings with words like "science" and "discovery" in their very names.  Today these buildings sit only partially tenanted, and the current government must deal with this fact.  Money is involved.  The end.

Tory Turmoil For Tim Hudak

See PCPO candidate Jeff Bennett disown Tim hudak's 1,000,000 jobs plan at local candidates debate.

Sri Lankan Paper Accuses NDP Candidate of Extremism

Don’t know quite what to make of this.  The source is a Sri Lankan Newspaper (The Sunday Leader); the guy in the picture does look like Neethan Shan, and he is definitely standing in front of a Tamil Tiger flag.  On the other hand, some of these Lankan papers through around their accusations pretty lightly.

PCPO Candidate For Simcoe-Grey Is Ready To Break Contracts

“We’ll do whatever it takes to stop WPD Canada from putting the wind turbines in this vicinity,” said [said PCPO candidate Jim] Wilson. “It is in process, and it may end up in a lawsuit, but we just can’t allow it.”

It seems to me that you can't effectively argue that the OLP was wrong to cancel those gas-pants...to the tune of zillions in legal and other fees...while at the same time promising to blow zillions by breaking contracts so as to cancel wind-farm projects.  In 2011 the OLP pandered to NIMBYS; in 2014 the PCPO is willing to pander to a different set of NIMBYS.

New EKOS Poll Shows Steady OLP Lead, NDP Sliding Off Track Into Snow Fence Of Failure, Green Party Surge!!!!!!

From here.

Looking at the NDP numbers, one could make cheap jokes about "electile dysfunction", but we are above that here at BCLSB. The Green party spike is fascinating and, I hope, permanent.  Having even one GP rep has made an out-sized difference not only federally with Canadian Hero Lizzy May as an MP, but out in B.C. where Andrew Weaver has been stirring up shit like nobody's business as an MLA.  Electing a Green MPP in Ontario would be like a refreshing taste of spearmint in the stale air down at Queen's Park.

PS.  Yes just writing about Ontario polls is lazy but nothing else has got me really juiced the past couple of weeks.