Why Is Kathleen Wynne Running So Hard For LPC?

Because the Ontario Pension Plan is dead otherwise.  Harper has already said he won't cooperate. That means Ontario can't piggy-back everything onto the CPC, then pay the feds a cut to use their infrastructure and manage the money.  Ontario would have to start from scratch, to build a whole parallel bureaucracy.  Expensive and inefficient.  Wynne's most significant campaign commitment depends on a Liberal government taking power in Ottawa.

Ontario Sex Ed Curriculum As A Federal Issue

When I first read that Team Trudeau was blaming its recent slide in the polls on the new Ontario Sex Education curriculum, I didn't buy it.  But Lo!, here is Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne suggesting that this is indeed the case:

"That, by the way, is going to be an issue in the federal election," Wynne said Thursday during a speech in Ottawa where an audience member congratulated her for overhauling the program for Ontario's schools.

[...]

Wynne said she has heard federal Conservatives might try to mobilize opposition to the Liberal sex ed. program in attempts to hurt federal Liberal candidates on the campaign trail later this year.

One federal Conservative who has unquestionably tried this approach is Brampton–Springdale MP Parm Gill;  he has sent out letters to his constituents on the topic.  And if one were to infer, one would infer that the CPC thinks it has identified a streak on anti-gay sentiment in several of the ethnic communities around the GTA, and intends to exploit it federally in the months ahead.

Something to be prepared for, as our dear Premier notes.

LPoC on Abortion Rights: Thumbs Up Or Down?

I dunno.  But at least I can see the reasoning behind this one (whereas the sense of holding open nominations continues to elude me.  Because nobody cares about process issues and the only news stories it will generate is when a nomination goes to heck).  Anyway, the reasoning is that the LPoC thinks there are votes for the taking in the NPD pond, and is willing to move towards that party a bit on a 2nd tier issue to grab them.  I'm not saying it will work; I'm just saying it was probably a calculated move, not Justin getting out of the shower one morning and telling the first reporter he met about this great new idea he had. 

After all, something similar did work for Kathleen Wynne.

Ontario Election...Or No? Which is it?

The Star is bullish on an election call:

The minority Liberal government doesn’t intend to negotiate with the New Democrats in order to get their support for the spring budget, a senior Liberal insider says.

That could set the stage for a provincial election in June and also puts the spotlight on NDP Leader Andrea Horwath, who has seemed far less bullish about joining the eager Tories in pulling the plug on the Liberals’ 10-year-plus reign.

Mind you, Sun-Ann Levy over at The Sun reports that:

“The most likely scenario right now is that they (the Liberals) hold the NDP at bay, they go for a year and there’s a spring [2015] election...

The fact that the NDPers still need more money in their election campaign kitty and aren’t exactly a “shoo-in” based on the latest Nanos poll, will likely lend credence to their decision to wait another year, [retired PCPO MPP Peter Shurma]says.

That Nanos poll, based on a telephone survey of 500 Ontarians between Feb. 28 and March 3, shows the Liberals leading with 36% support, the PCs at 33% and the NDP at 25%.

As for me, how the hell should I know?  I'm just a lowly blogger without any inside connections whatsoever.  But if you must ask I'm leaning towards the latter view.  The upcoming Wynne budget will be more clearly branded OLP, but contain enough measures that Andrea Horwath--and, as importantly, folks behind the scene like Sid Ryan who fear a 2nd War On Labour if Tim Hudak comes to power--can sign-off on it, albeit with much grumbling.  I wouldn't bet the farm on this outcome, but the idea of starting an election campaign 11% out of first place can't be particularly appetizing to the provincial NDP.  As to retiring PCPO MPP Frank Klees idea that, should the NDP and OLP come to a budget deal, they should officially declare themselves a "coalition government".  Yeah.  Good luck with that, idiot stick.

The New OLP Ad

If the theme isn't obvious, Greg Sorbara offers a little exegesis:

In this bold new ad, we see a woman who's truly fit to lead.

No matter how rough the road, no matter how great the challenge, Kathleen won't stop until she's reached her goal –  a brighter future for people in every corner of this province.

It's probably significant that Wynne, a T.O. pol if there's ever been one, is seen jogging along a road somewhere in rural Ontario.  Along with taking on the role of Argiculture Minister and showing up at every cattle show South of Oil Springs, this is meant to symbolize the fact that, for her, Ontario extends past the boundaries of the GTA.  

Its interesting too that the ad focuses on Kathleen rather than OLP policies.  That means that the party, as well as the pollsters, have realized that her personals stack up well against those of her rivals. Think of the same ad with Tim Hudak in it.  He'd stop after 1 K to kick a hippy.

So, in the end, do I like it?   Meh.  But Ontario does have some pretty scenery.

Our Gal (Kathleen Wynne) Is Lookin' Good!

If an election were held tomorrow, Premier Wynne’s Liberal party would receive 34% of the vote among decided voters, unchanged since May. Support for Time Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives has eased to 31% (down 3 points), while Andrea Horwath’s NDP have made serious gains and also sit at 31% of the vote (up 5 points). One in twenty (5%) Ontarians would vote for some other party (unchanged).

I would guess this result makes a Spring election more likely.  The Ontario NDP are in a fight for official opposition status which, while not government, is certainly better than 3rd party.

Wynne's Libs Still Ahead

A Nanos Research poll, published Saturday, shows Premier Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals are still ahead, though not on pace for a majority government, pollster Nik Nanos said. The Liberals sit at 36.0 per cent, ahead of the PCs at 31.3 per cent, the NDP at 26.1 per cent and the Greens at 6.3 per cent.

What can you say other than that her rivals make her look pretty damn good in comparison.

On Going Negative

You say you aren't going to do it, and then you do it and say you didn't.  Kathleen Wynne knows this.  At least I hope she does.

Odds Of An Ontario Spring Election

...just went down a little bit:

Wynne’s Liberals led with 24 per cent to 23 per cent for Hudak’s Tories, 20 per cent for Horwath’s New Democrats and 7 per cent for Mike Schreiner’s Greens. There were 14 per cent undecided, 11 per cent who refused to respond or would not vote, and 2 per cent who supported other parties.

I suspect Kathleen can convince the NDP to play ball for awhile, especially since the default answer to "Do you want an election?" is usually "no".  So hang tight and pray for 3% GDP growth, which is the answer to  many a problem.  (but which, unfortunately, does not look to be coming any time soon).