PCPO MPP Lisa MacLeod: An Inconvenient Clip

Its truncated, sure.  But anyone's first impression of PCPO MPP Lisa defending  Tim Hudak's jobs plan is that a Hudak gov. will somehow include women taking maternity leave in its total of 100,000 civil servants fired.  Clarification is surely needed.

Ontario Tories Get Economic Analysis Of Million Job Plan From AEI Junk Scientist

The PCs have released the economic analysis under their million-jobs plan. It’s by Benjamin Zycher, of the American Enterprise Institute.
— David Reevely (@davidreevely) May 13, 2014

One thing to know about the American Enterprise Institute is they've lobbied in the past against policies to curb both smoking and anthropogenic global warming, as has Zycher  as an individual.  For example, from his CV:

So, in short, they're nothing but kooks and corporate shills and so is he.  His analysis should be directed to the nearest waste-paper basket and recycled.

PS.  I've previously mentioned the AEI in these posts.

Bad Math From Hudak? Press Release Over-Estimates Savings From Cancelling Fit Program By Factor Of 20?

Their news release can be found here. But here's a screen shot just in case they try to alter it:

Because Tom Adams, no friend of wind energy, says point 1. is just wrong:

@Bigcitylib2 The PCs have a press release claiming $20B savings per year. Must be a typo. Total power bill this year ~$19B.
— Tom Adams (@tomadamsenergy) May 12, 2014

In Tom's estimate, the real savings are a fraction of what's in the news release.  Specifically, 1/20th:

@Bigcitylib2 Killing 2GW of solar that would have been paid 40 cents/kWh would save ~$1B/yr for 20 yrs. Good move.
— Tom Adams (@tomadamsenergy) May 12, 2014

I'm not sure I trust Tom's numbers either.  I don't think, among other things, that he accounts for the legal bills that will start to mount-up when a Hudak government tries to cancel contracts.

In any case, one hopes its a screw-up, but the way these clowns have been throwing around numbers...

Seriously. A million jobs, over 8 years? 96,000 here, 120,000 there? Based on what? How does he know?
— Michael Den Tandt (@mdentandt) May 12, 2014

...they might have actually convinced themselves they will get 20 times more savings than in the best-case scenairo.

PS.  Worth noting that this story describes Tom as having drafted PC policy docs.   So if he says they screwed up, well he oughtta know.

Surely You Jest. Tim Hudak Blames Unions For His Advance Team's Inability To File The Proper Fucking Paperwork

Tim Hudak's PCPOs have an excuse for why Mr. Hudak got his ass tossed off the TTC this morning for attempting to film an "availability" without getting clearance from the proper authorities.

CUPE workers stop Tim Hudak photo op on the TTC. They are only interested themselves, not fixing transit for commuters.
— Ontario PC (@OntarioPCParty) May 11, 2014

TTC Union Double Standard: Liberals allowed to hold avails on subway, conservatives told no. #onpoli #VoteON
— Ontario PC (@OntarioPCParty) May 11, 2014

Well, as to the PCPO's second point...let me think...give me some room here.  Maybe, just maybe, when the OLP did it they filled out the proper forms.  Maybe they had a guy on their advance team that could sign his own name so it could be read clearly rather than scrawling an "x" in red crayon.

Because this is what we have here: the campaign team for the guy who would fire 1,000s of civil servants, teachers and fire-fighters and pray to shit that  the private sector stepped up and fixed everything...CAN'T EVEN FIGURE OUT HOW TO HOLD A STUPID FUCKING EVENT ON A STUPID SUBWAY WITHOUT ATTRACTING COPS!!!  And his people are supposed to be emissarys from the private sector, hardcore capitalists gonna show the rest of us all how its done.  And they can't even manage to get on and off a subway car without causing chaos. Something that probably gay, probably Canada hating, probably Taliban loving artsy farts have managed to do on earlier occasions without any apparent issues.  So who are these small business enthusiasts that Tim Hudak has surrounded himself with?  Are they all pawnbrokers, or is there a chiropractor or two in there as well?   In any case, if it's to be a contest between the nanny state and these goofs right now it looks like nanny wins on the issue of competence.  That should embarrass all principled conservatives everywhere.

If Tim Hudak Runs The Province Like He Runs His Campaign, We're All Screwed

He may want to have a chat with his advance team. RT @AdrianMorrow Transit cops busting up @timhudak's TTC photo-op pic.twitter.com/pBOtWQqyQt
— Adam Radwanski (@aradwanski) May 11, 2014

Immortalized on Youtube:

His plan to fix transit undermined by the fact his handlers are too dumb to successfully take a subway train.

Tim Hudak's Plans For Education?

On CBC The House, Tim Hudak said he would increase class sizes to economize. Increase class size to 60 students per teacher #Onpoli #VoteON
— Nickie  (@MuskokaMoneybag) May 11, 2014

The "?" is because I didn't listen to The House yesterday.  Should be easy enough to verify, though.

PS.  Between about the 24/25 minute mark Tim admits he will increase class sizes.  I don't hear him explicitly saying 60 students per teacher.

Update: Tim says he will follow the suggestions in the Drummond Report.  That means:

Hudak said he's following Drummond report. That would mean 5,900 fewer teachers by 2017-18. #onpoli #voteon pic.twitter.com/QWnhtL4Ub5
— Stuart A. Thompson (@stuartathompson) May 11, 2014

Ontario Fire Fighters Against Tim Hudak's Proposed Civil Service Cutbacks

BURLINGTON – The Ontario Professional Fire Fighters Association came out against 
Progressive Conservative Leader Tim Hudak’s plan to cut 100,000 jobs from the public 
sector. 

“Tim Hudak can’t seem to make up his mind. He says he wants to bring jobs to the 
province, but then announced this morning that he plans to cut 20 percent of the jobs in 
the public sector,” said Mark McKinnon, President of the Ontario Professional Fire 
Fighters Association. “It’s scary to think that Mr. Hudak wants to cut 100,000 jobs – the 
population of cities like Niagara Falls and Brantford – and put hard-working middle class 
people out of work while the economy is still fragile just to balance the budget a little 
faster.” 

McKinnon added that Hudak’s announcement indicated that he was prepared to protect 
other public safety custodians – nurses, doctors, and police officers – but isn’t prepared 
to do the same for fire fighters who are on call 24 hours a day. 

There's more through the link. Incidentally, Hudak announced his plan to sack 1,000s at...wait for it...  Barrie Country Club, where a "full golf membership" costs  $999 and $369 per month.  So, yeah, this crowd understands the need for austerity.

John Robson, Your Pain Sustains Me

Tim Hudak is a boob. And if that means Kathleen Wynne gets re-elected, don’t blame me. It wasn’t my idea.

That's the spirit!  Despair, self-loathing!  Ontario's political right as they get a close look at the pug they chose to carry their banner.  And we're barely a week into the campaign.  It could get worse.

New Ontario Poll

From Innovative Research.  Looks like the gas plant fiasco has run out of steam.  And its hard to suggest with numbers like these that Andrea Horwath's NDP has any kind of "momentum". Therefore: a budget deal in the works?  A Spring election averted?  That's how I'm starting to lean.

New Ontario Poll

New Oraclepoll shows Ont tied: Libs 35%, PCs 34, NDP 23. Sample +/- 3% fm March 21-30 (amid OPP news on 27th). Echoes recent Forum poll
— Martin Regg Cohn (@reggcohn) April 2, 2014

I've never heard of Oracle.  Their website is here.  Nick Kouvalis (John Tory's current and Rob Ford's former black arts guy) says they're legit:

@NickKouvalis @reggcohn Thx.  Wouldn't want to be Ms. Horwath right now.
— Bigcitylib (@Bigcitylib2) April 2, 2014

As Mr. Cohn reports, this occured during the "latest unpleasantness", which suggests the news hasn't done much to move the numbers.  Tough on the Ontario NDP.  Toppling the government now would be like starting a baseball game down 10 runs (12 really).  And yet there are voices within the party insisting they come come with their shields, or on them.  Poor Ms. Horwath.  I mean that sincerely.

Ontario Election...Or No? Which is it?

The Star is bullish on an election call:

The minority Liberal government doesn’t intend to negotiate with the New Democrats in order to get their support for the spring budget, a senior Liberal insider says.

That could set the stage for a provincial election in June and also puts the spotlight on NDP Leader Andrea Horwath, who has seemed far less bullish about joining the eager Tories in pulling the plug on the Liberals’ 10-year-plus reign.

Mind you, Sun-Ann Levy over at The Sun reports that:

“The most likely scenario right now is that they (the Liberals) hold the NDP at bay, they go for a year and there’s a spring [2015] election...

The fact that the NDPers still need more money in their election campaign kitty and aren’t exactly a “shoo-in” based on the latest Nanos poll, will likely lend credence to their decision to wait another year, [retired PCPO MPP Peter Shurma]says.

That Nanos poll, based on a telephone survey of 500 Ontarians between Feb. 28 and March 3, shows the Liberals leading with 36% support, the PCs at 33% and the NDP at 25%.

As for me, how the hell should I know?  I'm just a lowly blogger without any inside connections whatsoever.  But if you must ask I'm leaning towards the latter view.  The upcoming Wynne budget will be more clearly branded OLP, but contain enough measures that Andrea Horwath--and, as importantly, folks behind the scene like Sid Ryan who fear a 2nd War On Labour if Tim Hudak comes to power--can sign-off on it, albeit with much grumbling.  I wouldn't bet the farm on this outcome, but the idea of starting an election campaign 11% out of first place can't be particularly appetizing to the provincial NDP.  As to retiring PCPO MPP Frank Klees idea that, should the NDP and OLP come to a budget deal, they should officially declare themselves a "coalition government".  Yeah.  Good luck with that, idiot stick.

OLP Leads In Real Poll!

One from NANOS, that is:

The Liberals are at 36 percent support followed by the PCs at 33 percent and the NDP at 25 percent. The Green Party had 7 percent in Ontario. 

I freely admit to commenting on Forum polls, especially when they give a result I approve up.  "They suck, but they're there," is my attitude, I guess.  NANOS, on the other hand, is usually solid, although a survey sample of 500 over four days is not terribly impressive.

OMG More Tory Turmoil For Sad Tim Hudak!

On Monday the Conservatives sent out a release, attributing the following statements to [now former Conservative nominee in Thunder Bay-Superior North Tamara] Johnson: 

“As of this time, I am no longer the candidate for the Ontario PC Party in the riding of Thunder Bay-Superior North. “I support the aims and objectives of the Ontario PC Party as well as our leader Tim Hudak’s plan and vision for a better Ontario. I wish Tim Hudak and all the Ontario PC Party candidates the greatest success in the upcoming election.”

Johnson flatly denies making the statements. 

The Waffle-Master© Strikes Again!

Anothger Hudak flip-flop, it seems.  From the Owen Sound Sun Times, February 21st:

PC Leader Tim Hudak has said that he wants to end the monopoly on beer and liquor sales by allowing the sale of alcohol in private outlets like corner and grocery stores.

From today:

Tory Leader @timhudak won't commit to his earlier policy to sell beer and wine in the corner store. #onpoli
— rjbrennan (@rjbrennan) February 24, 2014

Although I'm not sure this is a flip-flop; it seems more like a waffle.  In fact, I think its fair to say that there is no policy that Tim Hudak will advance that he is unwilling to walk back when the heat gets high.  Remember this one?  He is indeed the Waffle-Master©.  And at this rate, if they call an election for May, he may not have anything left to run on.

PS.  I've trademarked the term.  Say it and you owe me a nickel.

Hudak Flip Flops On Right To Work!

Story here.  Graphic swiped from Shaidle's hubby.  No link for you Arnie.  Fuck off.

By-Election Analysis And A Look Ahead

Let the NDP crow for a day.  They've earned it.  As for a Spring election, its about as likely/unlikely as it was yesterday morning, which means we'll probably have one.  And as to the likely result, well, Kathleen will be dogged by anti-wind  protesters at her rural events.  Our wild and crazy Ombudsman is launching a new and possibly embarrassing investigation into Hydro One billing.   (Not that that's an unworthy target, but check out the man's twitter-feed from last night:

@Ont_Ombudsman @RobSilver Don't drink and tweet.  Seriously.
— Bigcitylib (@Bigcitylib2) February 14, 2014

...His behavior is, let us just say, unseemly.)  But on the other hand, Tim Hudak still resembles a constipated weasal; his own party hates him and challenges his leadership at every juncture (google "Richard Ciano" and "Tim Hudak"); and his policies are so barbaric as to be judged appalling by a focus group of  cannibal rednecks.

So, for an OLP partisan, you have to be thinking that any Spring election is eminently winnable.

PS. What about Andrea Howath's NDP?  Some folks think they see a wave building.  Maybe.  I'm not noticing anything yet.

Randy Hillier: Ontarions, You Are Lazy

Follow the man's argument:

The proverb “shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves in three generations” refers to a family’s generational cycle through poverty and prosperity; does this proverb also reflect Ontario’s political generations?

The proverb demonstrates a timeless truth that the family’s first generation start off with little, and with hard work create a financial fortune. The second generation continues to work but also enjoy the benefits and the family’s wealth plateaus. The third generation, with no direct experience of work, consumes the family fortune. The fourth generation either returns to work to build a new fortune or begs for alms on the street.

In our case, things went South when Bill Davis got in power:

For some time now, Ontario politicians have been acting as the spoiled third generation, consuming the financial fortunes and equity our ancestors created, while holding the values and economic lessons that produced that wealth in contempt. The first of the third generation policies occurred during the Bill Davis years; the Niagara Escarpment Commission, imposition of rent controls and the purchase of Suncor marked the beginning of this new political generation.

And here's the kicker:

The present political generation, like the first, is also a reflection of the people today. 

And finally:

With certainty, this third political generation cannot last forever. What is unknown is this: Will our next political generation be personified by the proverb’s fourth generation, begging and pleading for federal alms, or will the people resolutely find and elect first generation-type politicians who can build a new fortune?

This is Mitt Romney style politics, pure and simple.  You're all lazy welfare bums.  Pull up your socks and vote for my guy!  Hardly the kind of appeal that is likely to attract a non-Tory to the Tory cause.  So hardly the kind of appeal Tim Hudak needs to make.  Randy must be assuming that the province's hard-core rightests will be able to vote twice, or that by voting really, really hard they can carry the day, though they be outnumbered.  We saw how that worked for Mitt.

Sad Tim Hudak, Part Bazillion

PCPO candidates are falling like flies out in Hamilton.    "Personal reasons".  Conflicts on election night. They promised to stay home and bathe their pet turtles.

Oh and here's a new Forum Poll; Tories lead in Ont. is down to three points,  allegedly because of their right-to-work proposals.  But remember, its only Forum.

If Tim Hudak And Andrea Horwath Want Someone To Meet Rob Ford

Then they should go ahead and meet him. Oppo leaders often meet people the premier won't, as they typically have more time on their hands than the premier.  It would be a lovely opportunity for a photo-op with the mayor.  I'm sure Tim Hudak would like more pictures of him and Rob Ford together; I'm sure Andrea Horwath would like a few more too.

PS.  I'm a T.O. resident and I'm fine if Premier Wynne would rather deal with someone else rather than the mayor.  What good would a meeting do other than further the man's re-election plans?

Getting Ready For 2014

Just in case we have a Spring election here in Ontario, something which, given Andrea Horwath's fairly poor recent polling numbers, I am not convinced will happen.