Saturday, May 05, 2007

Tory Poll Numbers Down In Hell's Crapper

The new Ipsos-Reid, as reported in the Edmonton Journal:

OTTAWA - Under attack on two fronts for their handling of the Afghanistan mission and the rollout of their green plan, Stephen Harper's Conservatives have slipped into a virtual tie with the Liberals in support, according to a new Ipsos Reid poll.

The Conservatives command 35 per cent in support among decided voters, compared with 34 per cent for the Liberals, according to the survey, conducted exclusively for Canwest News Service and Global National.

The NDP sit at 14 per cent, the Bloc Quebecois at nine per cent, and the Green party at seven per cent. Those results are consistent with recent polls, Ipsos Reid says.

And here are the regional results:

• B.C.: Conservatives 43 per cent (-4), Liberals 32 (+4), NDP 15 (0), Green 10 (+1)

• Alberta: Conservatives 66 (+4), Liberals 20 (+10), NDP 7 (-4), Green 7 (-8)

• Saskatchewan/Manitoba: Conservatives 46 (0), Liberals 25 (+3), NDP 22 (+1), Green 8 (-3)

• Ontario: Conservatives 34 (-6), Liberals 44 (+4), NDP 13 (0), Green 9 (+2)

• Quebec: Bloc 35 (+4), Conservatives 20 (-5), Liberals, 25 (+1), NDP 14 (+2), Green 5 (-1)

• Atlantic Canada: Conservatives 32 (+10), Liberals, 43 (-1), NDP 18 (-4), Green 7 (-1)

Yes the sample size of the regional results makes analysis a mugs game, but still, the most interesting numbers are from Alberta, where the Libs seem to be sucking life from the NDP and Greens but NOT from the Tories. This is a bit odd, since if you read the blogs there's a whole lot of weeping and wailing coming from the Tory heart-land re. the "betrayal" over their environmental legislation.

Also, despite raining free money over La Belle Province, the Tories are in 3rd place in Quebec.

And, more generally, crappy news for the Greens, whose trouble lately seems to have manifested itself in declines across most regions of the country.

Its hard to see right now what the Tories can do to turn this around. Its gonna be a long, hot summer in Afghanistan, and at home we can expect any number of weird weather disaster stories to underscore the inadequacy of their climate change policy. Furthermore, my understanding is that most of the available money was spent in the 2007 budget, so there won't be much in the way of goodies to distribute next time out.

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

Ipsos is a tory poll...if they have them at 35..they are probably at 30......they are no believable...to bad there are no liberal pollsters...but business people are all cons.

Steve V said...

Anon is right, they always seem to over-state the Tory support, compared with others. Having said that, even Ipsos shows the Tories squandering a ten point lead in just two weeks.

Dante said...

If they're Tory, don't you think it's possible that they moved t he poll the other way to give the Grits a false sense of confidence?

Maybe they did the unthinkable and left it the same to have a good laugh at all pundits who take their tea leaves reading too seriously.

wilson said...

Afghanistan and the Environment are the Government's weakest files.
The Cons have been on defence for 2 weeks, and looked very disjointed.
Sadly Canada experiences the worst casualty numbers, in a week, since the Korean war, and 4 Opposition parties, every enviro nut/actor in Canada and the US, peaceniks and anti-war activists, MSM and the war rooms of all the opps... gang up on PMSH and the Conservatives, and the best the Liberals can do is TIE the Government.!!!

Whew! I was expecting waaaaay worse numbers.
Well, you gave it your best shot Libs, did pretty good too.

ps... more on the 'specific allegation of torture':

''Statement by Lieutenant-General W.J. Natynczyk, Vice Chief of the Defence Staff;

The CF members came upon the individual and questioned him but at no time did they capture him. From their questions, the CF members concluded that there was no need to detain the individual as he was of no value or threat to them. Subsequently, the local Afghan National Police (ANP) arrested him.

Sometime later CF members visited the local ANP station where the Afghan had been taken. At that time they noticed injuries that had not been present previously. A medical examination assessed the individual as having minor injuries.

As the result of what they observed the CF members were hesitant to leave the Afghan with the local ANP, took custody of him, and arranged for him to be transferred to a different ANP detachment.''

h/t smalldeadanimals

Kingston said...

I have to agree with Wilson concerning these numbers, I expected a lot better numbers for the Libs. I think we should also take into consideration that even thought the CPC has done a horrible job on the communications side of the house concerning the Afgan detainees, this will get sorted out and then what issue will get this kind of traction. Again, I am worried if that the only hit the CPC took over this was what this poll shows this doesn't bode well for the LPC

Anonymous said...

So the Liberal's poll numbers are below 'Hells crapper' then?

Ti-Guy said...

Is Hell's Crapper near Delisle?

canuckistanian said...

no, i think it is terre haute indiana...oh wait, that is america's butthole ;-)

Steve V said...

Oh the Tory apologists are a riot with the "whew" bullshit. The Tories were up 10 POINTS TWO WEEKS ago, that is seismic as far as polling goes, particularly from the pro-Tory polling outfit. Way worse than horrible? Keep spinnning, you sound ridiculous.

Holly Stick said...

Do any of you wonks consider that it's tax time? Or do you all have accountants? Maybe people who did their own taxes noticed that their taxes went up.

Last year people in the lowest tax bracket paid 15%. This year it was 15.25% because the Conservatives cancelled the Liberal tax cut in July. So next year us lower-paid types will pay 15.5%. So why aren't all of the opposition parties raising hell over this tax increase to the lowest paid people of Canada?