The new Ipsos-Reid, as reported in the Edmonton Journal:
OTTAWA - Under attack on two fronts for their handling of the Afghanistan mission and the rollout of their green plan, Stephen Harper's Conservatives have slipped into a virtual tie with the Liberals in support, according to a new Ipsos Reid poll.
The Conservatives command 35 per cent in support among decided voters, compared with 34 per cent for the Liberals, according to the survey, conducted exclusively for Canwest News Service and Global National.
The NDP sit at 14 per cent, the Bloc Quebecois at nine per cent, and the Green party at seven per cent. Those results are consistent with recent polls, Ipsos Reid says.
And here are the regional results:
• B.C.: Conservatives 43 per cent (-4), Liberals 32 (+4), NDP 15 (0), Green 10 (+1)
• Alberta: Conservatives 66 (+4), Liberals 20 (+10), NDP 7 (-4), Green 7 (-8)
• Saskatchewan/Manitoba: Conservatives 46 (0), Liberals 25 (+3), NDP 22 (+1), Green 8 (-3)
• Ontario: Conservatives 34 (-6), Liberals 44 (+4), NDP 13 (0), Green 9 (+2)
• Quebec: Bloc 35 (+4), Conservatives 20 (-5), Liberals, 25 (+1), NDP 14 (+2), Green 5 (-1)
• Atlantic Canada: Conservatives 32 (+10), Liberals, 43 (-1), NDP 18 (-4), Green 7 (-1)
Yes the sample size of the regional results makes analysis a mugs game, but still, the most interesting numbers are from Alberta, where the Libs seem to be sucking life from the NDP and Greens but NOT from the Tories. This is a bit odd, since if you read the blogs there's a whole lot of weeping and wailing coming from the Tory heart-land re. the "betrayal" over their environmental legislation.
Also, despite raining free money over La Belle Province, the Tories are in 3rd place in Quebec.
And, more generally, crappy news for the Greens, whose trouble lately seems to have manifested itself in declines across most regions of the country.
Its hard to see right now what the Tories can do to turn this around. Its gonna be a long, hot summer in Afghanistan, and at home we can expect any number of weird weather disaster stories to underscore the inadequacy of their climate change policy. Furthermore, my understanding is that most of the available money was spent in the 2007 budget, so there won't be much in the way of goodies to distribute next time out.