Friday, February 08, 2013

Its Only A Forum Poll

...but I like it:

Forty-one per cent of poll respondents said they’d vote Liberal in this scenario, granting the party 164 of the 308 seats in the house. The Tories would get 30% of the vote and 93 seats, and the NDP would get 20% of the vote and 45 seats.

I foresee a very short, very unexciting leadership "event" in April.


crf said...

Good. Federal Liberals: polls don't usually lie that much. Listen to them. Don't nominate a compromise candidate.

And maybe they'll learn from the Republican convention. In that the presumed favourite, Romney, was subjected to such a gauntlet that he was bloody unrecognizable mush coming out of it. That's what "compromise candidate" means. A bowl of bloody mush.

Maybe they'll learn from the Dion fiasco that compromise candidates are poison, and can't get caucus support. That's a lesson Ontario Liberals didn't learn. And the federal party can watch this fiasco unfolding in real-time. Wynne obviously doesn't have good support, bleeding cabinet members as she is. Wynne is the candidate you can feel all warm and fuzzy losing with. How long do the Ontario Liberals think the Conservatives are going to stick with Hudak, seen as he offers the Liberals their only electoral ray of sunshine? Ontario PC's are not dumb, and they'll dump their leader and likely win a landslide.

And a lesson from BC: Christy Clark, compromise candidate: shedding cabinets members and electoral support. She should just leave now for the good of her party. Carol James, didn't have support of entire caucus, stepped down, paved the way for Dix, who seems to have total support.

Joe Clark?

rockfish said...

I dare say Clark was not a compromise candidate; she may have had zip (bloy being = 0) but she had the popularity and was the 'new' face... Abbott would have been the compromise if you ask me. But I just live here and don't support Socred or Socred-lite.

crf said...

Hi rockfish. You are right. It was really a two way race for B.C.'s liberal leadership, so it is not obvious to argue that Clark was a compromise candidate. Maybe I'm stretching the meaning the of the term too much.

The main two choices were between her and Kevin Falcon. I really do think Falcon was the preferred choice of cabinet, and the party's id, but was considered less electable than Clark. The party compromised in that way: chosing a candidate they perceived had more electability over the one with more ideological compatibility.

So the Clark choice was sort of like what the Ontario Conservatives have been trying with Hudak. The fact that the supposedly more electable Clark is not doing well in the B.C. polls may make many Ontario PCs want to get out their knives and hasten Hudak's exit, in favour of the installation of a politician much more in tune with the PC party's more committed members.

Jordan said...

Justin Trudeau = Christy Clark.

Reality Bites said...

I love this:

"Surprisingly, much of the new support for the Trudeau-led Liberals came from other parties: 35% from the Greens, 25% from the NDP and even 10% from the Conservatives."

Erm... where else could new support come from except from other parties?