The latest from Angus Reid:
The poll reveals that the Liberals have support of 33 per cent of voters nationally, the Conservatives have 31 per cent, the NDP 17 per cent, Bloc Québécois 9 per cent and Green party 7 per cent.
Actually, that's wrong. The AR from late April scores it:
In the online survey of a representative national sample, 33 per cent of respondents (-2 since March) say they would vote for the Conservatives in the next federal election. The Liberals are also supported by 33 per cent of respondents nationwide (+2), with the New Democratic Party (NDP) in third place with 15 per cent (-1), the Bloc Québécois with 10 per cent (=), and the Green Party with six per cent (-1).
So, while we are still within the margins, I guess its fair to say that the ads have had no effect on the Tories downward drift in support.
I don't really buy the idea that the real effect of these ads is long-term, that Canadians will wake-up on election day with the notion--a notion to which they can assign no origin--that Michael Ignatieff is a dangerous alien and they should vote for whoever sounds most like a farmer. PR campaigns "work", sometimes, it seems to me, but how and why they do is still more art than science and if this is all we are seeing from the one set of ads, then I suspect that's all we'll see, period.
Now lets wait for SteveV to analyse the hell of these numbers.