Wednesday, February 16, 2011

As Night Follows Day

The polls show Harper and Co. pulling ahead so, obligingly, they screw up. Then they double-down on the screw-up by insisting it isn't a screw up, thus insuring that it remains in the news for the foreseeable future, crowding out whatever other message they might be attempting to push.

Thanks, guys and gals of the CPoC.


CK said...

Judging by the Harpercon cheerleaders at the Blogging Tories, various comment boards, social media, etc., apparently, to them, what Bev Oda did, was just fine, expressing her disapproval for funding. To them, we're just a bunch of lefties clinging to hope after the bad polls for the Liberals and NDP.

What's funny is, that if it had been a Liberal who had done the same thing Oda did, they would no doubt be leading the battle cry for their head.

Unknown said...

Obviously none of these "scandals" damaged the Tories in any meaningful way with the polling they are enjoying -

Have fun with this crumb when and if you can; with the massive amount of attention that will be focused on the coming budget, this crumb will be forgotten and people will be yawning about it in about a month (if that), just like all the other "scandals" were.

CanadianSense said...

These polls illustrate the structural problems with the Liberals.

They don't have the base of donors and support to close the gap in political funding.

The CPC are alone in using television to advertise their message.

The nugget is Liberals can't compete with the "noise" because of the health of the organization.

The highest priorities for the Liberals should have been to match the CPC in the number of donors and to close the dollar amount from actual supporters.

Relying on the friendly MSM cheerleaders to spin a scandal every other week has backfired.

The MSM has lost its credibility in pushing and trying to help the opposition.

Terence said...

As usual Canadian nonsense is as screwed up as his statistical nonsense. He seems to forget that pre election polls like this are pretty useless in terms of what might happen come election day. Jean Chretien and Harper were both way behind in the pre election polls in the year when they first won. In fact it was forecast that Chretien might finish third in that 1993 election.
Polls capture the moment not the trend. Canadian nonsense has a trend we can all see....twisted lies

Tof KW said...

Terence, it pains me to say this but CanadianSense is right. The party that governs must be the one with the most cash. This way they can flood the airwaves between elections with attack ads to crush the opposition. Also they can commit fraud and lie about it without any worry from the media, because after all, this is how governing is done.

Gayle said...

Hey CS? I am going to help you out.

We already know your opinion on this. You repeat the same two arguments over and over again.

Argument 1 - fundraising

Argument 2 - Catholic voters.

Maybe get some new material. Just a suggestion...

CanadianSense said...


You missed trust and credibility. Your team is sorely lacking in both. (Polls verify that)

Feel free to deny the empirical evidence by the non-partisan group.

Also feel free to deny the efforts of the Liberals trying to recapture those key voting blocks with McKay as the point man.

Liberal MP John McKay (Scarborough-Guildwood), who is Kenney's counterpart in his party wooing Catholic and other faith communities, agrees his party has done things that have turned religious voters off. But he sees signs that his efforts to re-engage faith groups is meeting with success.

Tof KW said...

CanadianSense wrote:
"You missed trust and credibility."

This from someone who supports a government that commits fraud and lies about it.

CanadianSense said...

The original point I raised was organizational strength. It takes money to run a political party.

The best tasting pizza in town is not necessarily the most successful.

The Liberals have failed to fix their party's funding and volunteer base. (That is critical)

Ignatieff does not have the chess pieces to replicate the Perfect Storm that wiped out the Mulroney Conservatives.

Jason Hickman said...

OT the main point of BCL's article, but this from Terence caught my eye:

Jean Chretien and Harper were both way behind in the pre election polls in the year when they first won. In fact it was forecast that Chretien might finish third in that 1993 election.

Harper, yeah - but Chretien? I am (gulp!) old enough to remember the years leading up to the '93 election. With the exception of Kim C's brief surge in the late summer and early fall of '93, I thought the Liberals were doing pretty good, poll-wise, especially once the Mulroney government reached the depths of its popularity.

In fact, the records at this site indicate that from July '91 onwards, the Libs were in front of the Tories & the NDP.

Harper & Chretien *were* underestimated by at least some of the pro pundits, that much is true. Is Iggy being underestimated? I dunno. Harper and Chretien had years of time to learn & improve before they were actually elected PM. An interesting question is whether the Libs will give Iggy another chance to learn & improve if he loses this election?

WhigWag said...

trouble is, Senseless, you bullying elephants in the China shop have just shot yourself in the feet as far as replicating that victory by capitalizing on the shift in Catholic loyalties, since the Catholics are both behind KAIROS AND are opposed to the Harpies' dumb on crime agenda.

Tof KW said...

Ignatieff does not have the chess pieces to replicate the Perfect Storm that wiped out the Mulroney Conservatives.

Being truthful, I actually agree with you here CS. Any vote this spring will more than likely just result in another Harper minority. Wildcards are a Harper majority (if Iggy screws up during the campaign) or a Lib minority (if Harper screws up - which he's pretty good at NOT doing during a campaign).

Chretien's perfect storm was because the PC split into 3 parties; PC, Reform & the Bloc. The Libs would have had nowhere near the romp in 1993 if the conservative vote wasn't fractured.

At this point the CPC vote is whole, but the more the Harper government commits fraud, lies, and evolves to be more obtuse and secretive than the dirtiest of past Liberal governments ...they risk the same fate. And having more money doesn't help, I can confirm that as a PCer in 1993.

Tof KW said...

As a follow up to my suggestion that the CPC will itself split should they continue along their present course ...finding posts like this on the CBC message threads is music to my ears:

DarwinWasRight wrote:
Posted 2011/02/17
at 9:13 AM ET

"The Wild Rose Party is making great headway in Alberta. It is truly a Conservative based party that doesn't flip flop on it's ideals.

Once established in Alberta politics, they will start to move east and will form ground roots in Ontario and the other provinces.

This will give real Conservatives a true Conservative Party to vote for, not the pretending conservatives in Ottawa now."

Holly Stick said...

If the Wildrose Party spreads, it will have to change its name to include other provincial flowers. It could become the Bouquet Party or the Floral Tribute Party.