Thursday, August 30, 2007

Tory Tories Show No Mo

This new SES poll came out yesterday and seems to have gone unremarked:

Liberal Premier Dalton McGuinty will likely need NDP support to hang onto a second-term minority government, shows an SES Research/Osprey Media poll.

Forty per cent of Ontario’s voters polled say they’ll vote Liberal in the fall election, compared to 34 per cent who back John Tory’s Conservatives, 19 per cent for Howard Hampton’s NDP and eight per cent for Frank de Jong’s Green Party.

An unnecessarily dark spin to put on the numbers, IMHO. Forty per cent is very close to Majority territory, and unless something unforeseen occurs, John Tory has run out of bullets. Nik Nanos, president of SES Research, thinks the possibility of a NDP/Lib alliance might be enough to drive some into the arms of the Conservatives:

“One of the strategic things that could unfold during the campaign is that if it looks like a Liberal minority government, then the Conservatives are going to be able to dredge up memories of Liberal/NDP government’s past and what they meant for the government and government spending,” Nanos said.

“They’ll be able to bring up that bogeyman, which probably will be quite effective among voters over 40 years of age who still remember that particular government,” he said.

But that's a lot of "ifs", especially since I don't think most Ontarians look back on the Peterson years with any particular animosity.

Furthermore, Tory's campaign is off to a rocky start, having gone negative early and displaying a bit of a testy streak when challenged. No wonder he is showing, as Mr. Nanos puts it, "no momentum". In fact this bit I think he's got pegged:

“And right now, what we’re seeing is an electorate that really isn’t in a mood for change yet,” Nanos said. “There’s not what I’ll say is the ‘Kick-the-bums-out-feeling’ in the electorate at this point in time.”

Tory in 2011? Maybe. 2007? Less and less likely.


Anonymous said...

Oh boy, a Liberal minority that has to suck up to the NDP to remain in power.

Ontario, just bend over and kiss you economy goodbye.

Lotsa work out West when you have had enough.

Anonymous said...

why wait for a second term.

It has already started.

GM to axe 1,000 Oshawa jobs



August 30, 2007

General Motors of Canada Ltd. will eliminate about 1,000 jobs at a truck plant in Oshawa

Anonymous said...

This election should have been a snoozer but I'm starting to get the feeling it may actually be interesting after Dalton decided to talk about the "social unrest" faith-based schools may lead too.

I have a feeling that that may be a statement that the Liberals will come to regret.

Ti-Guy said...

I'd still consider it because I love mountains, but then, you can't really live in the mountains (not in my line of work, anyway). I'd be stuck in either Edmonton or Calgary (there are no other cities in Alberta) and really, unlike the locals, I can't drink enough to make those places seem more interesting than they are.

Anonymous said...

"Yes retard, thats why John Tories numbers are sinking because he's on the right side of the religious schools issue."

He isn't, but I don't get the messaging from the Liberals. If Dalton stands up and says that he believes kids from different faiths should be educated in a secular public system because they interact and learn to tolerate each other that's fine.

If he stands up and implies that sequestering kids in faith based schools may lead to increased bigotry, inter-faith violence and such, that's a totally different message.

While both statements go towards the same idea, the tone of the second is more blunt and divisive. It's could lead to a 'Beer and Popcorn' moment.

And for the record, if I were to vote today I would vote for McGuinty but thanks for calling me an Albertan redneck retard.

bigcitylib said...

Anon 1:56,

I wasn't aware that Dalton had said that.

I think you'd be right about the beer and popcorn thing except that I'm not sure its a cohesive identifiable group Dalton is offending. It isn't as though Muslims for example are crying out for this kind of thing (maybe a small slice of the Jewish community, but certainly no hue and cry from that direction in general either).

Ti-Guy said...

This issue of religious and public education was pushed on McGuinty by the marginals and the regressives in Ontario (who've been in the throes of religious panic since the Islamofascists attacked the Christofascists six years ago in a foreign country). I don't think McGuinty can help but sound non-commital on this. It's simply not a priority for most people.

The marginals who have a dog in this fight seem to think the time is ripe to push this, but I don't get the impression the average Ontarian really cares.

I still haven't made up my mind...I'd rather see potentially illiberal and anti-democratic faith-based education under public surveillance (as Catholic education is) and yet, I don't support faith-based public education anymore.

canuckistanian said...

now now ti-guy, miriam toews is from there is at least one sentient being out in menno-land.

Steve V said...

One tidbit the poll fails to mention, the Conservative % mirrors their election result. McGuinty is down 6% from the election, but none of the erosion has moved to Tory, some to the NDP and the rest to the Greens. That fact bodes well for McGuinty, because he could win back soft support, that is bypassing the Conservatives. Also, the scattering of voters could mean 40% is enough to get close to majority.

Ti-Guy said...

now now ti-guy, miriam toews is from there is at least one sentient being out in menno-land.

I did not know that, Canuckistanian. Well, there's hope for the place after all.

I've never had any problems with Mennonites, by the way. They stay out of politics, which is what all religious conservatives should do and their food is delicious.

I think Steinbach has a lot of evangelicals though, eh?