Saturday, March 24, 2007

Dead Heat In Quebec

From The Globe:

The three main parties remain in a dead heat, with the Parti Québécois getting 31 per cent support, the Liberals 30 per cent and the ADQ 28 per cent.

All that cash from Stephen Harper hasn't helped Charest at all. Perhaps just the opposite. As I suspected, you can be too obvious in the way you go about trying to buy people's vote.

Update: That's from Strategic Counsel. The Montreal Gazette has a bit better news for

A Liberal minority government. Full analysis of new Gazette poll, Page A4

LIBERAL 35% could win 43 to 68 seats

PQ 29% could win 30 to 47 seats

ADQ 26% could win 19 to 39 seats


Anonymous said...

Dead Heat indeed - hopefully the PQ doesn't eke in but even if they do they're certainly not the titans they once were, and that's good news.

ottlib said...

In the last Quebec election the Quebec Liberals needed 45% of the vote to win a majority government and now the Gazette says their is a possibility of that happening at just 35%. Wow, talk about delusional.

It is true that the ADQ is doing much better this time and perhaps The Gazette believes the PLQ will come up the middle. The problem I have with that is most of the PLQ support is concentrated in the federalist ridings in Montreal, Eastern Townships and West Quebec. In the remainder of the province they are running second or third.

So in order for them to even win a minority they will have to sweep the federalist ridings and hope the PQ and the ADQ split the rest. A possibility I guess except that some seats that were considered safe for the PLQ have turned into tight contests and there is no telling how they will go.

This election is too close to call but I have a sinking feeling that government is moving beyond the grasp of the PLQ.

Anonymous said...

I think you're missing the point. I'd suggest you take a look at Chantal Hebert's column this morning. Even if M. Boisclair manages a minority, he will do so with the lowest numbers for a separatist party in Quebec in over 30 years, with over 2/3 of Quebeckers having said they're not interested in going down the referendum road again.

Indeed, what we're seeing here is the further development of what the 2006 federal election heralded--the break-up of the Liberal/BQPQ polarization of all political discourse around the one overriding topic of sovereignty. M Charest is faltering because he thought, as did Paul Martin last time out, that he could win by running against the threat of a referendum. But the happy fact is that Quebeckers are so uninterested in going there that this strategy seemed both out of touch and absurd. They wanted to talk about the issues that actually affect their more mundane aspirations and needs as individuals and a community, and apparently they still do, in even greater numbers.

As such, these numbers are extremely heartening. Certainly, I'd guess that Mr Harper is pleased with them, whoever forms Quebec's minority government. I would submit that any Canadian federalist, regardless of partisan stripe, should likewise be pleased, and perhaps refrain from the kind of petty, not to say suspect, sniping of your original post.

All the best,

ottlib said...


I am not so certain the separatist cause is in as bad a shape as you think.

Much of the unpopularity with the PQ is the result of Mr. Boisclair. He has managed to alienate a good portion Quebecers and his base in the last year or so. The man really is an empty shirt and if he were not running the PQ things would be alot different in this election and in Quebecers' desire for another referendum.

That is why a very small part of me would like to see a minority PQ win this Monday. Having him lead the Yes side in any referendum would be a dream come true for Federalists and could very well lead to the decisive victory for the No side that would bury seperatism for at least a generation.

Of course, there are too many variables that could go wrong so it would be better for him to lose but still...

bigcitylib said...


Things I have read in the past little while have suggested that, after the first couple of days, Boisclair has run a fairly mistake free campaign and watched while PLQ and ADQ have beaten one another up. You might get your wish.

Ranking my own preferred outcomes, I would say I would be happy with anything but a PQ or PLQ majority. PLQ minority would be best (because I don't think Charest deserves anymore, and this result would also look like a Harper loss). PQ majority would be five more years of ulcers.

Anonymous said...

If Bosclair loses - then Duccepe will take over the PQ - and then separatists will rear their ugly heads again - it's not over that's for sure.

Ti-Guy said...

Separatism will never go away. It's been an integral quality of the Canadian state since its inception.

I would agree that a PQ minority would be a good outcome. Minus referendum threats, the PQ tends to be a good government for Quebecers...better than the alternatives they've had in the 30 years, in any case.

ottlib said...

I would not go so far as to wish for a PQ victory, even a minority victory, because it would put them in a position to be trouble.

Just look at the BS Mr. Harper has done with a minority government. Mr. Boiclair would be able to do the same in Quebec since the PLQ would be in a leadership race the day after a loss leaving the PQ to do as it pleases with the ADQ to help them out. And it is the ADQ that Canadians should fear having anything resembling power or influence in Quebec. They are not a separatist party they are a party that calls for Quebec autonomy. That means they want Quebec to be a country in every way but name but still receive all of the finanical and other goodies from the ROC.

I see a certain advantage for Canada to have Andre Boisclair as the standard bearer for the separatists during a referendum but the risk to Canada of putting him in that position is too great.

I am hoping that Mr. Charest can eke out a victory of some sort, although I do not believe that will be the result Monday night.