Monday, September 10, 2007

Ontario Libs in Majority Territory

That's one way to look at the Ipsos Reid poll reported in the Ottawa Citizen:

Premier Dalton McGuinty's governing party has 41 per cent voter support against 36 per cent for the Conservatives, compared with a seven-point lead in an Aug. 24 Ipsos Reid poll. The New Democratic and Green parties trail at 17 and six per cent, respectively.

The early numbers translate to a slim Liberal majority government of 55 seats out of 107, according to an analysis done for Ipsos Reid based on the last five publicly released polls. The Tories are currently projected to take 40 seats, with 12 for the NDP.

The other way is to note, as the paper does, that "McGuinty's lead [has slipped] to 5 points" (that's down two points). And I suppose a third way is to note that its all within the margin of error.

The only thing a bit scary in the poll is this:

Conservative support in the competitive 905 belt surrounding Toronto rose two points from late August, opening up a lead over the Liberals. Suburban ethnic communities, normally a bastion of Liberal support, could be propelling the jump in light of Mr. Tory's faith-based school promise, Mr. Wright said.

Scary, except that I don't really believe it; I don't see anyone, outside of a few small Jewish groups, really solidly behind Tory's proposal and, as the poll notes, about 66 per cent oppose it.


Unknown said...

I read it twice and am still unsure if you support Inclusive Public Education, or not! My kids go to Associated Hebrew Schools which is a network of schools - the original one was founded in 1907 - yes we are now 100 years old and still paying our education taxes on top of tuition. We teach the full Ontario curriculum in addition to all Judaic studies (Hebrew language, religion, history, holidays) by having a half day with a General Studies and the other half with a Hebrew Studies teacher. So, your argument that somehow the religious studies would suffer if we covered the full Ontario curriculum doesn't wash. If our kids went to public school the money would be found, so this is not a money issue. Please tell me what exactly is the issue? 93% of faith-based students in this province attend fully funded Catholic schools; why are the remaining 7% shut out? Any tolerant fair-minded person would support inviting all faith-based schools to join the public school system!

Unknown said...

That's weird! I wrote that for another of your blogs and it popped up here! Anyhow, I want to make this comment: some minority faith communities might not feel that strongly in favour of faith-based education since most of their families are satisfied with public schools BUT they are extremely unhappy with Dalton McGuinty's unfair and hypocritical comments on minority communities and their rights to equality with the Catholics and public faith-based education. Not so much a vote for faith-based education as a vote against McGuinty who has flip-flopped on the issue so many times I might need some gravol!