Friday, May 09, 2008

Libs Close Gap In Latest Ipsos Poll

The latest poll said the Conservatives had the support of 35 per cent of those surveyed, compared to 32 per cent for the Liberals, 14 per cent for the NDP and nine per cent for the Green party.

Libs up 3, Tories 1 from a week ago.

Don't know really what to make of the Quebec numbers:

Within Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois was at 37 per cent, well ahead of the Conservatives at 24 per cent and the Liberals at 23. The Green party had eight per cent, and the NDP seven.

Why do all the Que. polls show the Tories up about 5% from Ipsos, while all the national polls show Libs/Tories pretty much tied? Yes I know the Quebec polls have a larger sample size, but don't all these national polls, done with different methodologies though smaller samples, have more or less the same weight statistically speaking via meta-analysis?

PS. Scratch that NDP Que. Renaissance.


Steve V said...

"Why do all the Que. polls show the Tories up about 5% from Ipsos, while all the national polls show Libs/Tories pretty much tied?"

I was wondering that too, so I went and looked at the national poll regionals numbers prior to the last election, with comparable sample sizes. They were actually pretty accurate, so I don't think we should dismiss them out of hand. That said, I don't really understand the discrepancy.

Reality Bites said...

If I had a dollar for every time the NDP had encouraging Quebec results in a poll, I'd be retired.

I wouldn't bet on them retaining Outrement, and I'd bet thousands against them picking up another Quebec seat. Hundreds against them even finishing second in any riding but Outremont.

Greg said...

If Liberals are so confident of burying the NDP, why not bring down the House and call an election?

biff said...

Once again, bad poll. Libs are nowhere even with the CPC in Quebec.

Low sample national polls over sample cities (Que numbers are an obvious indicator), and hence over count Liberal fortunes.

The Liberals' actions (avoiding an election like the plague) speak volumes.

The Liberals have far more accurate internals guiding their election decisions. They have nowhere to go but up right now. And so they wait.

biff said...

Further, if the poll is over sampling cities, as appears to be the case,

then this poll is particularly bad news for the Liberals.

Note also all the other polls that are more specific, dealing with trust over economy, leadership, and other factors that drive voter intention, and Harper leads by historically wide margins.

Again, you don't have to believe me, just judge the Liberals' actions (or inaction to be more precise).

Ti-Guy said...

Again, you don't have to believe me

I don't think anyone even reads what you write, anymore. I sure don't; you're never even on topic and you're dull as hell.

Reality Bites said...

In case you haven't noticed, greg, the object of an election isn't burying the NDP, it's burying the Conservatives.

More importantly, greg, why are you replying to a point no one actually made. No one made any claims of the Liberals being confident of burying the NDP. BCL and I were talking about the NDP's non-existent prospects in Quebec, which is nothing new. This is a province where they've never won a single seat in a general election. Their "collapse" in Quebec is merely a return to the status quo from what was only a theoretical bump in support.

Are you REALLY as stupid as you come across, or are you merely interested in drive-by sneers?

Borges said...

What you should make from the Tory figures in Québec is that they have fallen way down. I don't know what they've done to anger the Québécois so much but the Conservative party was at parity with the Bloc not long ago.

biff said...


did you ever stop to ponder the possibility that your "Don't listen to what Biff is saying!" retorts of yours,

actually highlights/draws attention to, my comments and therefore accomplishes the precise opposite of what are seemingly attempting to do?

Unless, of course........... ti-guy, a conservative mole?

Now that would be dastardly, ti-guy.

biff said...

So, my comment about polling,

on a thread about polling,

is "co opting" the thread, and, oh yes "lies".

But your challenging the veracity of my professional status (again without any evidence whatsoever) is on point with the discussion is it, ti-guy?

Ti-guy, I gave you some advice on the other thread, you should read it.

Greg said...

In case you haven't noticed, greg, the object of an election isn't burying the NDP, it's burying the Conservatives.

Sorry Reality your snotty reply aside, BCL's last sentence seems to suggest that the NDP will not be a factor in Quebec and therefore the election. Therefore, call an election and put it to the test. Better yet, ignore the NDP and call an election. Either way, grow a pair and call an election.

I am probably as stupid as I appear, but I am not as rude as you obviously are.

Greg said...

P.S. Reality. Why not go to the dictionary and look up the definition of "smear". I realize this might be a challenge for you, but I think you will find it rewarding.

Reality Bites said...

The NDP won't be a factor in Quebec, idiot. Never have been, probably never will be. No reason to think it's going to change.

Steve V said...

I don't listen to Biff either, it's just Con spin. Biff is the same clown who said the Liberals were fading everywhere in Ontario, outside of the GTA. LOL.

His standard line, I predicted Outremont. Well so did I, so I guess that means you should listen carefully, when I say Biff is FULL OF SHIT.