Tuesday, January 30, 2007

Another Quebec Poll

Federal this time, with a translation and commentary provided by none other than Paul Wells:

The Tory numbers in Quebec — up from 21% to 23% since November — are less impressive than the numbers posted by Stéphane Dion's Liberals, up from 20% to 29%. Probably it would be cruel of me to link to this reminder of what everyone was saying six weeks ago."

• The Bloc, meanwhile, is in serious trouble: 34%, six points below its very weak showing in the 2000 election. Probably it would be cruel to remind everyone that Gilles Duceppe is headed toward his seventh Quebec election, and his fifth as Bloc Québécois leader, and that his career in electoral politics has now lasted more than twice as long as Lucien Bouchard's.

• But. As La Presse points out, most of Dion's gains have come at the Bloc's expense, where the uphill climb for the Liberals is steep indeed. In dozens of mostly-francophone Quebec ridings, the Liberals performed so badly in 2006 that even a nine-point swing doesn't begin to make up the gap between Grit and Bloquiste. (Remember that Chrétien won only 19 seats in 1993, with 33% of the popular vote.) So while Dion could, if this poll became reality, expect to win back a few low-hanging fruit like Jean-le-Ber in the Montreal region, serious Liberal gains in Quebec are still not quite in reach.

Leave it at that. My attempt to switch templates went went awry this morning, and while things are mostly back to normal, I still grieve for the site-meter data I lost. January was going to be my best month ever for visits. Now I can't prove it.


Anonymous said...

don't worry, with the three or four visitors you get some days just round it off at 150 for the month.

Anonymous said...

I check in every day. Thanks for being here.