Saturday, January 06, 2007

Predictions? I've Made A Few

Does this week's cabinet shuffle and the defection of Wajid Khan make a 2007 election more or less likely. Opinions vary widely, but tend towards a Spring/Fall vote. Just because I'm lazy and won't have time to write much today, here's a few samplings:

But former NDP campaign director Robin Sears says collaboration on the environment or other issues doesn't necessarily mean an election will be delayed. He's still betting on the spring.

"The Tories don't want Dion to get any more experience in the role than they have to, the Liberals don't want to be seen to be propping up the government, the NDP are similarly frightened that Dion will get his sea legs and begin to eat into their strength."
-Former NDP campaign director Robin Sears.

Some will wonder if the defecting Liberal should now go back to the people of his riding and have his decision ratified. I would say yes, except we are probably within 16 weeks of a general election, and it'll cost the taxpayers $2 million or so to have a single run-off in Mississauga-Streetsville. Don't know about you, but I think that's a stiff price to put on principle, when the folks there will be voting again within a couple of weeks. Mr. Harper has six months within which to call any by-election, so odds are he wouldn't even bother.
-MP and Political Rock Star Garth Turner.

With five new limos, musical chairs for seven, and yet another cabinet post for an unelected senator, Stephen Harper has redesigned his ministry more to fight an imminent election than to run the country over the longer term.
Sun Media-- Greg Weston

Harper's claim that the new lineup is not an election cabinet is somewhat disingenuous, since all parties are on election footing. But it also reflects the reality of governing with a minority, which is that campaigning for the next election never stops, even when there is serious national business at hand.

With his new cabinet arrayed behind him, Harper has now set the stage for what may be the final act when Parliament resumes this month.
-Vancouver Sun Editorial

If this is the conventional wisdom--that we are still looking at a faiimminentnent federal election--I find I agree with it. Harper's opportunities for accomplishment in the current minority situation, where he must lean on the NDP for support, will be limited to areas not dear to his heart or to the heart of his political base. Harper is a gambling man. I think he'll go for his majority on the assumption that the longer he waits the more illusory that majority is likely to become. Since Ontario votes in the fall, and since Quebec may be on tap for an election later in the year, I think Harper goes for it soon. Expect a call been March and May.

Have I ever been wrong before?


Anonymous said...

$1B+ in the budget for the environment and off to the polls we go. Maybe $43B ($1B/year) over 43 years (to get them to their 2050 targets). If they proposed the second amount, how would Liberal MPs vote?

I hate to say it, and Harper knows it, the Federal Liberal Party is not ready for an election.

Stephane and Liberal Executives: Start fundraising and start door knocking. The leadership campaign was 9 months long but an election may last less than a month. A War Room should be up and running. Harper's War Room has never stopped running.

Expect an election a lot sooner than later.

Please donate what you can at We do have to fear a Harper majority - it will not be like the last 12 months. Be motivated by the 6 years of Republican control of both Congress and the White House.

Anonymous said...

No election. Only the Bloc wants one.

Whacko Jacko Taiban bin Laden is soooooooo desperate to buy sometime to get a few poll numbers back up. The knives are out in the NDP for his scalp so he needs to keep things going, work with PMSH and get to claim some victories.

With Dion proving to be a worse communicator than Martin, with the political instincts of an old shoe, with a huge, magnetic ability to step into political doo-doo piles, one after the other, PMSH will WANT to keep him around. After all when your opponent is wounding himself, give him more knives.

Nah, no chance of an election as long as the above trends continue.

Anonymous said...

The sooner we toss the Harpies, the better....for the Consevatives. Neoconservatism is dead, and the CPC needs to re-tool with a fresh leader. Harper started off stale and he's now decidedly passed his prime.

Time to move on Connies.

wilson said...

PMSH will stay in power by implimenting every good idea that the Libs had, but never implimented.
(Libs did it with Reform/Alliance ideas for years, shamelessly)
Like Dion's 'intelligent decentralization' (idea dates back to when Chretien appointed Dion, an unelected Quebecer, as Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs).

Libs and Dippers are fighting over the same voter pool. Libs go up, Dippers go down; Dippers go up Libs go down.
While they duke it out over the big city vote,
PMSH will focus on pushing the Bloc to the fringes,
while the CPC moves into the vacancy left by the Libs leap to the left (scooping up the righties pushed out of the 'big tent').

Anonymous said...

Sorry, wilson61. By mentionning "intelligent decentralisation" you inadvertently highlighted the core capacity that's missing from Harper's government and that will be his ruin every time.

Harper's been given enough time to show that the "smartest man in the room" can apply to rooms other than the padded one called the CPC caucus.

Time's up, Connies. Time to go.