...according to Reuters:
A CROP poll for Montreal's La Presse newspaper put support for the provincial Liberals at 37 percent, compared with 34 percent for the Parti Quebecois, which wants the mainly French-speaking Canadian province to break away from Canada.
A Leger Marketing survey in Le Devoir had the pro-Canada Liberals at 34 percent and the Parti Quebecois at 32 percent.
If Charest sees this and drops the writ, then you probably won't see a federal election in 2007 at all, because Ontario goes on October 4 and we'd be having wall-to-wall votes. On the other hand, if Harper drops the writ, or "arranges" it to be dropped, then his chief Quebec ally Charest will probably have to wait until '08 for roughly the same reasons.
Interesting too in that, given Quebec's political demographic, a two or three point lead may not be enough for Charest to win (at least not a majority). In 2003, the Quebec Libs took it by a much larger margin.