Monday, September 18, 2006

Ekos Poll: No Tory Majority

The raw numbers from The Star:

Tories: 38.7%
Liberals: 28.8%
NDP: 17%

And, bringing up the year, the Bloc Québécois has 8.4 per cent support and the Green Party 7 per cent.

Analysis, FWIW:

"Stephen Harper and his government are doing quite well," said EKOS president Frank Graves. "Harper himself has a solid approval rating and well over half of Canadians say his government has matched or exceeded expectations."

The EKOS poll differs from polls done earlier this summer, which had the Tories and Liberals closer together. But all the polls make it clear Harper has not been able to build upon his showing in the January election, especially in Quebec and Ontario.

Regionally, the news is that Harper has not broken through in Quebec, and the Libs. are looking a bit better with 19.7%. Similarly in Ontario, where the Libs lead with with 40.1 per cent of voter support. The Tories have 37.5 per cent, the NDP stands at 15.5 per cent and the Green Party holds 6.9 per cent.

On Afghanistan, the Star piece says only that support is "eroding". On CTV this morning, I believe I heard the numbers at 49% opposed and 36% in favor. That will probably deteriorate further, and quite quickly, if the four NATO soldiers killed today in Afghanistan turn out to be Canadians.


Walks With Coffee said...

Very interesting... EKOS has been 4-6 percent higher for the CPC than other polls and was more on election night. Reading between the lines, CPC support has collapsed to base partisan support.

Mark said...

As a U.S. citizen, I just wanted to let Canadians know that I am ashamed of your country for following in our footsteps. I would have hoped that Canadians would have more common sense, frankly.

News reports from Afghaninstan tell of civilians getting warned before airstrikes by leaflets, much as happened in Lebanon. And, indeed, tell of hundreds of people dying, with casualty counts based not on bodies, but on intelligence estimates.

You can believe, according to these rough estimates, that all those who have died from airstrikes are Taleban, at your leisure... or you can believe that some of them are civilians, trying to flee their cities and towns. By some local reports, up to 40,000 civilians fled the latest Canadian/British offensive, only to find themselves homeless, exposed, and potential targets for artillery, strafing runs, and aerial bombardment. Just like Lebanon.

You can read news reports of intense aerial and artillery attacks, and of large parts of cities being destroyed. Of targets being leveled and then leveled again, because there just isn't enough actionable intelligence to go on as to the whereabouts of the ellusive Taleban, who are now made up, according to several news reports, not just of outsiders, but of local Afghanis. You can then read of Canadian soldiers advancing into what once were thriving, bustling cities, only to find them desolate, destroyed, and pretty much abandoned. Just like parts of Lebanon were.

Had this happened in Bosnia, we would've called this ethnic cleansing, but you are Canadians, so we call it liberation.

And when scattered survivors return to their depopulated, largely destroyed towns and cities, you can hear the reports that as scared and wary as they must be of being occupied yet again by foriegners, they are even more afraid of the Afghan police, military, and local warlords -- the ones that your country support, and are doing their best to help arm, train, and bring back to these cities. For indeed, your soldiers are few, and will have to move on, returning control back to violent, oppressive, drug dealing thugs.

Your government celebrates the offensive in Afghanistan as allowing reconstruction to continue again, but I personally know a former reconstruction worker in Afghanistan, and I can tell you, it simply isn't that easy. My friend worked for UNESCO, and tried her best to bring these people fresh water, but ultimately could not do it, as it was simply too dangerous to go forward. As such, a program that took a year of planning was mothballed indefinitely, before it could come to fruition.

And as the bombing today shows, your military can drive out the insurgents they are aware of, and yet it's *STILL* too dangerous to work there. How long will it take your soldiers to establish enough stability where the UN will feel comfortable sending their aid workers back in so that programs can start again? A year? Two years? Five years? Ten?

Never, frankly, is my best estimate.

Today, there are four more dead Canadian soldiers, who were giving out candy to a score of poor, hungry Afghani children, many of whom are now maimed and struggling for their lives. The next time your soldiers roll into town and offer candy and treats, parents will scream at their children to come inside, for fear of their lives, and bar their doors to them. And the next time your soldiers see an Afghani riding a bicycle in the general direction of their soldiers, they will be forced to view it as a potential threat, and will have just seconds to get them to stop before it will become necessary to tear their body apart with automatic fire. Such is the nature of your country's dubious inheritance in Afghanistan.

In summary, I just wanted to say God Damn Canada for trying to save the village by destroying it. God Damn Canada for liberating these cities from the Taleban, only so they can eventually be turned over to corrupt local control. God damn Canada for giving these poor, war weary people false hope once more.

And, above all, God Damn Canada for being little better than stand-ins for the overtaxed U.S. military, when you of all people should know the failings of our country and its policies, and should try to guide us out of this darkness, and towards better alternatives. Your country offers no vision for the people of Afghanistan, for the people of the United States, or even for your own citizens. Now we're all in the dark.

God Damn Canada.

bigcitylib said...

Mark, many Canadians, myself among them, feel that Canada's involvement in Afghanistan has turned sour on us.

Unfortunately, the current federal government is our version of your Republican party, and with them around we won't be leaving Afghanistan. Believe me, we're trying to get rid of them as quickly as we can.