Monday, September 18, 2006

Ekos Poll: No Tory Majority

The raw numbers from The Star:

Tories: 38.7%
Liberals: 28.8%
NDP: 17%

And, bringing up the year, the Bloc Québécois has 8.4 per cent support and the Green Party 7 per cent.

Analysis, FWIW:

"Stephen Harper and his government are doing quite well," said EKOS president Frank Graves. "Harper himself has a solid approval rating and well over half of Canadians say his government has matched or exceeded expectations."

The EKOS poll differs from polls done earlier this summer, which had the Tories and Liberals closer together. But all the polls make it clear Harper has not been able to build upon his showing in the January election, especially in Quebec and Ontario.

Regionally, the news is that Harper has not broken through in Quebec, and the Libs. are looking a bit better with 19.7%. Similarly in Ontario, where the Libs lead with with 40.1 per cent of voter support. The Tories have 37.5 per cent, the NDP stands at 15.5 per cent and the Green Party holds 6.9 per cent.

On Afghanistan, the Star piece says only that support is "eroding". On CTV this morning, I believe I heard the numbers at 49% opposed and 36% in favor. That will probably deteriorate further, and quite quickly, if the four NATO soldiers killed today in Afghanistan turn out to be Canadians.


Walks With Coffee said...

Very interesting... EKOS has been 4-6 percent higher for the CPC than other polls and was more on election night. Reading between the lines, CPC support has collapsed to base partisan support.

bigcitylib said...

Mark, many Canadians, myself among them, feel that Canada's involvement in Afghanistan has turned sour on us.

Unfortunately, the current federal government is our version of your Republican party, and with them around we won't be leaving Afghanistan. Believe me, we're trying to get rid of them as quickly as we can.