Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Not Bad

Considering that the first couple of days (until about Sunday) went pretty poorly for Iggy and Co., this seems a decent result.  No Tory majority in the offing; regionals show Libs regain lead in Maritimes.  Numbers starting to move...oh so their direction.  No reason to panic yet or switch from making rational arguments to sticking pins in my Harper voodoo doll.



Tof KW said...

Nice to see Nanos releasing polls more frequently again. Ipsos gets too much coverage considering they've released some of the worse poll results ever, case in point...

Smitherman Leads Ford in Toronto Mayoral Race as Rossi Drops Out

Between Nanos, H-D and Ekos we should be able to get decent snapshots of public opinion going forward.

Anonymous said...

Lately polling seems to be way off. That said, my view is that this election is going to turn on the debates. Iggy is not Dionne. He is a seasoned debater and will give many Canadians much to think about.

R. G. Harvie said...


A Liberal minority is just around the corner.

The polls, in fact, are showing that Ignatieff's efforts are making no difference at all.

And as we've seen with the numerous examples of opposition ankle-biting in the past, the Canadian public is quick to foregive issues that don't impact them personally.

So, as the campaign rolls along, you can imagine that, as history as showed us, the Liberals inch closer during each faux "scandal" they create, only to be followed by the inevitable drop in the polls as Canadians decide that they don't really care.

Todays "contempt" scandal reports will, within a matter of weeks, become fish wrapping and bird-cage liners.

And the Conservatives will rise up again into majority territory.

But, then again, maybe I'm wrong.

Maybe the miracle "debate" will stem the tide - ignoring the reality that debates are never won, they are only lost. And it's very unlikely that Harper is going to stumble a la Stephane Dion.

Tof KW said...

sue, Ipsos has a record of being way-off on many instances, so their poll from the other day should be viewed as an outlier.

However taking H-D, Ekos, Nanos and Abacus (admittedly the new kids on the block, but their numbers look reasonable thus far) average these and they are showing ~10% lead for the CPofC over the Libs at this point.

Pretty safe to say this is an accurate snap-shot, and the 24/7 EAP and Iggy attack ads have done the job for Harper.

Harper's problem now is the over-the-top rhetoric may come back to haunt him as the campaign begins to be about real issues, and Ignatieff doesn't look to be the scary American coalition guy anymore. Think Paul Martin overplaying the 'Harper secret agenda' card in 2006. We are already seeing a bit of this as the coalition fear-mongering now dogs Harper in the media more than Iggy.

The problem for the Liberals is that these poll numbers don't move much thanks to the two years worth of attack ads run against him.

But there is hope for the Grits, remember Harper himself overcame a 10% deficit in the polls to win government in 2006. Election campaigns do matter.

- - -

Mr Harvie, a number of fair points, but Dion was considered the winner in the French language debate, and was not bad in the English version either (his performance actually surprised me that night). He stumbled badly on other instances, with the 'no double-takes' being a rather decisive FUBAR near the end of the campaign (reminded me of Stanfield's infamous fumble in some ways).

From your post I'm unsure if you meant Dion stumbled in the debates, where he did not and in fact were probably his best moments over that entire campaign.

Gayle said...

Numbers started to move for Dion after the debates, and then went back down after the CTV set him up with that unfairly worded question.

In any event, if Harper goes down it is because he will defeat himself, which he seems to be trying to do.