Friday, January 14, 2011

On Election Talk

Because I am hard-pressed today, and have a headache (maybe a cold coming?), I'll just let WK explain why all this talk of impending elections is baloney. As for the election subsidy functioning as a poison pill in the upcoming budge, well, Harper has said there won't be any, and I can't see the gov. engineering triggering a 1/2 billion dollar election over a miserable $27 million item. My guess is Jack Layton joins the CPoC's purple coalition for a few crumbs, and the rest of us sweat it out until 2012.


Tof KW said...

My own educated guess is there is a compensation deal between Ottawa and Quebec over the HST deal (which is almost a done deal) which the Bloc will support. They will in turn vote with the government on this budget.

It is in no one's interest right now to force an election. If there is an election in 2011, it will be by a surprise scandal, or a serious miscalculation or blunder. My money is on 2012 at this point.

The vote subsidy thingie should be viewed for what it is; an attempt by Harper to pull the coalition bogeyman out of the closet to boost his poll numbers (and quiet the Liberals making them look weak ...again).

My advice is for the Libs to tentatively consider the idea scrapping the subsidy and float a few counter-proposals out there. Turn the issue on its side and make Harper look like the bully. Likewise it will throw more cold water on Harper's coalition bogeyman.

bigcitylib said...

Yeah, thats my advice to them as well.

BlackRedVixen said...

Actually, the Bloc may not support the budget even with 2.2 billion HST payments:

I had it translated with Google, so forgive the poor language.

The Bloc would actually benefit from an election sooner rather than later. They're riding high at 43% in Quebec, these days.

In 2012, he may well no longer be leader of the Bloc; at which time, Quebec becomes open season for any party.

I am concerned about losing the per vote subsidy, because something would have to give. Given Harper's corporate friendly nature, I suspect he would not only raise the ceiling, but would probably allow corporations to donate again.

I am concerned that we could become like the US, where politicians and parties only answer to their biggest benefactors.

Funny, the right whine about ADSCAM continuously, but vehemently lobby for a system where ADSCAM would look like child's play.

BlackRedVixen said...

Oh, and an election will happen in spring of 2011: I'd say the smart money is on that.

Also explains why Harper wants to scrap the subsidy as well; it's about decimating the Liberals to oblivion; non-party status, according to Gerry Nicholls' article.