Saturday, November 27, 2010

2010 Hurricane Season

The number of named Atlantic storms (19) and number of hurricanes (12) was twice the long-term average and higher than almost all of the predictions. The difference this year is that no powerful storms struck the U.S. thanks to the response of the upper-level air flow to the El Nino / La Nina oscillation in the Pacific...

And here's Judith Curry (before she went loopy) on what it all means:

We conclude that global data indicate a 30-year trend toward more frequent and intense hurricanes, corroborated by the results of the recent regional assessment (29). This trend is not inconsistent with recent climate model simulations that a doubling of CO2 may increase the frequency of the most intense cyclones (18, 30)...


Dave said...

I always approach hurricane frequency with a great deal of care. The intensity and frequency of such tropical depressions alone actually prove nothing. It will take years of observation to be able to bear out s consistent climatological change. Comparing one year of activity in the AHB against climate models may be convenient but it is not compelling.

In short, I'm not disagreeing with those assessments, but I won't base my own assessment on Atlantic Basin hurricane frequency.

The truth is that the majority of 2010 Atlantic hurricanes followed the climatological standard track trend much more often than they didn't.

What is much more compelling to me is the fact that some tropical depressions, after having achieved hurricane strength, retained that energy, and were able to find warm feed surfaces, well past the point where they should have transitioned to extra-tropical.

Deno said...

Keep flogging your dead horse BCL it will not come back to life.


Gerrard787 said...

Warmers are so desperate now that they are down to comparing the number of named storms.

It's been five years now since a major storm has hit the US. That is the real news.

Naturally, warmers don't compare that fact with the historical data because it shows storms hitting shore are at a nearly historic low.

Deno said...


... and your proof is what?


You do understand that your insults says a lot more about you and the stance you are so-called defending then the person you are insulting?

Aaaaah, maybe you don’t.


Gene Rayburn said...

really Deno?

And what exactly is profound and noble about

"Keep flogging your dead horse BCL it will not come back to life."

Thanks for the proof, the eloquent argument, the noble truths you convey.

Seems like you used insults, conjecture and smokescreen like Paul Stupid. Yet you got upset because you got called out for saying nothing.

Big baby, I guess Deno is hypocrite in another language. I love that you use that insult line when it fits so well on you.

Good luck Deno, keep searching for that brain.